AdamFx42
Long

Looking for double bottom in EurUsd

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
187 6 6
Previous low in EurUsd             provides a nice setup on the weekly chart for a long position

I have entered around 1.06 long and have a Stop Loss just below 1.04, targeting 1.2480 in the long run
Previous weekly low around 1.05 may provide a support level and double bottom on weekly chart

Fundamentals could not get (much) worse for Euro             and I am betting that a low is in place
This is a long-term trade, and I expect to take half out at 0.618 Fibonacci weekly expansion next month,
and leave the other half in until 1.618 Fibonacci expansion at 1.2480 until next year
This second target is just below 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the previous move down
and it would keep Euro             bearish but would be a healthy weekly retracement up.

A break below 1.04 and previous lows on the weekly chart would lead me to believe that the double bottom
is no longer an option and I have put my SL accordingly.
If my SL is hit I will be looking for defense of parity in this pair (doubling my exposure)
Comment: Big move up today and double bottom is now in place.
First target should be reached very soon now
Comment: Retracement down to 61.8% fibonacci support would be healthy before the next move up
That means the 107.5 level should be watched, below 1.07 I'm out - SL moved to 106 at break-even
Comment: First target reached! - 1/2 TP, rest SL to breakeven and target 'second target'
Comment: Pair is at 61.8% fibonacci retracement of last move up to 1.14 from 1.06
A buy opportunity here with huge RR ratio
Buy now with SL below 1.08 and TP above previous highs (mine is at 1.24)
Comment: Pair is moving back up to break above (first target) weekly 61.8% fib expansion
If it holds above this level it offers the chance to buy for a greater move up to second target
Comment: Above first target now - looking for 1.108 level to act as support for more buy opportunity
Comment: I believe it would be right to buy around 1.11 now - above first target 1.1089 (now support)
So do you think that the FED will not hike the rates and that the ECB will easing less that forecast? Anyway, interesting view.
regards
Reply
AdamFx42 mgiuliani
I do not think either actions will bring the EurUsd below previous lows around 1.05 - but I expect a retest of previous lows soon,
and the forming of the double bottom which should follow is the basis for this prediction
Reply
In support of my prediction - on the daily chart the 100SMA has moved above the 200SMA, which is a bullish sign
Also this has occurred around the 161.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1.0645, if this level does hold and the price moves above 1.0650
then I will see that as a good sign in support of my long term prediction and will add a position around 1.07
The 100SMA will remain above the 200SMA in this case too, and it may point to the bottom being in place already
Reply
AdamFx42 AdamFx42
The Fibonacci expansion I mean here is inside the weekly chart's W pattern --- this is a daily chart and 'zoomed in'
The left point is the high/bounce after EurUsd hit previous lows around 1.0470, then the next low, and then the last high around 1.17
The 1.618 expansion level is a natural target, and if it holds the price should move up again
Reply
This has been one of the best predictions that I have ever made, it keeps doing exactly what I expect it to do
Buy above 1.1089 - SL 1.10, TP is second target 1.24+
Reply
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