From a historical point of view, Stocks are falling during the summer time,(80 % probability) currently the EUR USD is negatively corelated with the DAX
and other Indexes.Therefore i see this pair going up till september and the DAX
going down. From a fundamental poin of view it has a lot of sence because the Fed should raise the interest rate in September. If they will raise it now the dollar will be to strong for the economy.
2) Interesting but the dollar is still falling although everething speaks for a raise in value. VERY IMPORTANT is that the YUAN was also choosen to be a reserve currency a lot of national banks are selling dollar reserves in order to buy yaun.
Dont forget we are in an up trend already. sry for the tehnical analysis but i dont see any sense to do it because the fundamentals are more imporntant.