Daily Timeframe: *New outlook* Price is currently capped between a daily supply area at 1.26386-1.25459 (surrounds the aforementioned weekly support swap level), and a long-term daily demand area coming in at 1.22877-1.23809 (located relatively deep within the aforementioned combined weekly demand/Quasimodo ).
A break below could spell trouble for anyone who has bought the Euro . The reason being is simply because this would likely force the market down towards a daily demand area seen at 1.21326-1.22234, which would result in price trading below the weekly demand/Quasimodo . Likewise, a breakout north could potentially attract further buying up to the 1.27900 hurdle, a daily Quasimodo , and as such likely confirm buying strength within this market.
4hr Timeframe: The EUR/USD pair as we can see broke lower. We are quite sure this selling was fueled by Draghi’s (ECB President) speech around the London open. Anyway, this momentum south has obliterated multiple support barriers, and broke below the up-trending channel. So, how do we see the market moving throughout the week? Half of the team are looking for sells considering the Euro has been trending south for longer than we can remember, while the other half are looking for buys, since price is currently located around higher-timeframe demand (see above).
We have decided that any trades taken on this pair WILL require lower-timeframe confirmation. With that in mind, tentative buy orders are seen around 1.23527, just above a combined 4hr demand/round-number area at 1.22942-1.23491/1.23. On the other hand, possible selling pressure may come into the market around 1.23980, just below the round number 1.24. In the event that price fails here and a rally higher ensues, a nice-looking level to short from comes in at 1.24401, just below a 4hr demand swap area at 1.24422-1.24588, which has the lower limits of the channel providing extra resistance.
• Buy orders: 1.23527 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.24358).
• Sell orders: 1.23980 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Dependent on how one confirms the level) 1.24401 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.24657).