EUR close-down upward turnabout ;-)

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
370 26 8
Expectations for the upward impulse to touch base at the levels marked by the 18 degrees angle, and then re-test the bolded red line support levels again ;-)

* Still keeping my long positions until 1.101, then turn the short lights ;-)
Trade active: Come on baby, Gimme 1.1025, before we're goin' down ;-)
Trade active: We are still waiting to hit 1.102. Then we will think what to do. Mind well, I am not giving you an investment advice. I just share some ideas I am dealing with during my trading session. And I hope you have good fun with me!

Mind well, speculation is very risky venture. Always follow your own intuition, and always take responsibility for your own ideas, risks and mistakes ;-)
Trade active: Mind well, I am not giving you an investment advice. I just share some ideas I am dealing with during my trading session. And I hope you have good fun with me! Mind well, speculation is very risky venture. Always follow your own intuition, and always take responsibility for your own ideas, risks and mistakes ;-)

*Disclaimer: I am sharing just some of my trading views and techniques that evolve with the progress in time, while using some conventional charting tools. I am not on that site to give advice to anyone. If you have fun with following my charts, you are very welcome. If you don't like my ideas, then you may simply ignore my shared work. We are on a social media. I make use of that media in order to improve my knowledge of the market, and my knowledge of the traders' techniques, insights, ideas, knowledge, innovations, expectations, and mistakes. In return to this, I also share some alternative ideas of conventional technical analysis that really has fed me up in the past years. I look forward to find out new approaches for analysis of the market development and to improve my individual performance on Forex. Forex is not just about your technical analysis mastery, Forex is about your psychic preparedness to face risk and control your appetite! Cheers to everybody. Thank you! And wishing you a very successful and profitable trading session!
Trade active: Playing with my nerves, but I don't give up. I want 1.102 ;-)
Trade active: Already worries turn into appetite for 1.102 :-D
Trade active: It smells like 1.104 aready ;-)
Trade active: Still in. Don't feel fear that easy ;-)
Trade active: We are trying out x.618 level. Still there're chances to go up ;-)
Trade active: Anyway, I must admit that I should've closed my long position at 1.101, and I would've been now about to close a short position on a very nice profit, and maybe then issue a new long position for the trade ahead. My decision to stay cool and wait for 1.104 has locked me up over here, and I have not a big choice now, I've around 75% margin level, and choose to wait until the fx rate hits 1.104, or I'll accept the loss and go out for a walk ;-) Cheers!
Trade active: Phew, guys, ladies and gentlement, my forehead is sweating with cold nervous sweat. What should I do, when that thingie is going further down?? Take the loss? Oh, no. Well, I have a basket of long and short positions. I would tell you a secret. I would wait for some more time, and if the market goes below 1.095, I would simply accept the loss for that long position. Nevertheless, I will then automatically jump to the short position that has been opened some time before the long one. And if the market move is strong enough downwards, I would try to COVER UP my losing long position with the short one. Then, when profit/loss=1, I would close down the short position, and would immediately transcend to another long position opened somewhere around 1.102... I would hope I would be lucky with my longer-term perspective for the UPWARD TREND in EURUSD, because I would result on the positive side, no matter of possible mistake that still remains with the status "Trade active". There is always a second chance, especially if we try to find it with cold brains and wise hearts ;-) Enjoy
Trade active: We are moving up. Well, then, we are going to Scenario 1. No need to turn on my escape-loss plan ;-)
Trade active: Like I discussed with "airmac" below, the market is constantly moving from one state to another. From clarity to obscurity. From momentary certainty when we touch support and resistance levels, to relative uncertainty between our psychic coordinate systems. And it does that continuously, at every different time-dynamics, no matter whether we prefer to trade 5M, 15M, 30M, or we would enjoy trading following up our 1H, 4H or 1D market watches ;-) Enjoy life, and never feel afraid to solve confusing challenges! Cheers!
Trade active: The fx market constantly moves from one state to another. From clarity to obscurity. From momentary certainty, when we touch support and resistance levels, to relative uncertainty between our personal and collective psychic coordinate systems.
And it does that continuously, at every different time-dynamics, no matter whether we prefer to trade 5M, 15M, 30M, or we would enjoy trading following up our 1H, 4H or 1D market watches ;-) Enjoy life, and never feel afraid to solve confusing challenges! Cheers
Trade active: If you want to survive on Forex you try to avoid mistakes. Nevertheless, perfect trade without any mistakes is something impossible in the longer term. Don't feel afraid of mistakes in your trading session. When some trading position starts ringing the red alert on your monitor, try to think of some escape-plan. Mistakes aren't something really so bad, mistakes - like mathematical problems - just challenge your brains to find a practical solution. If you solve your homework fx problems well, you would definitely get the reward ;-) Thanks for following me up, and thank you for your challenging remarks. They help me figure some things out ;-)
Trade active: Oh, YEAH BABE@! ;-)
Trade closed: target reached: That was really sweet! ;-) I just made 100% capital gain.
Comment: I am taking notes on my experiments with the trading platform and my real account sessions, and post some meditations on that website, hoping to help others who really try hard to learn something precious about the relativity on forex market.

I'm trying to solve the following question. Let's abstract ourselves from our successful trades, when we have hit the jackpot, and when we see our equity grow, when we may set some minimum requirement for tp, and just enjoy our day watching the fx rate. The problem comes, however, when we are on the other side. We've made a trade, but we see that the fx rate goes gradually into the opposite direction. How long should we wait in that situation, should we hurry to sl, or we should think of something more flexible, we should keep that position, no matter that its negative, and open another one, an opposite one, that will compensate the momentary fluctuations we experience. If we manage to hit the right proportion between the sizes of the "mistaken trade" and the "opposite trade", we may not only manage to escape from unpleasant losses due to the unpleasant behaviour of the market, we may also not only manage to compensate to a great extent the negative result that tortures our "mistaken trade", but we may successfully wait safe and sound until the reverse, and then finish out "mistaken trade" on the right side, and finish our adventure very pleasantly.

Actually, I have the feeling that many people think that technical analysis makes their profits. Technical analysis is just analysis, it is not the real trade. Technical analysis and all other market analysis used for trading should give just general directions, meaning general ideas about possible trends, general ideas about possibility and relativity. After we've considered the analyses, however, it's time for the real trade, where ideas may bring or may lose money. Important is that we are as careful and technical with our trading sessions, as with our technical analyses. Actually, analyses are build on assumptions, while our trading is based on actions - buy and sell. While we cannot say we can be 100% precise when we make assumptions - and that's why we always speak in broad terms (also quite vague sometimes), drawing some channels, using different subjective interpretations about history-based statistical indicators, and relatively remote support and resistance lines, and etc.; our trading session is precisely conditioned in accordance to very strict trading rules, that work with very clearly defined mathematical equations...

We don't sell and buy our technical analysis. We only may use it to improve our trading session in the continuity of time, as it may give us ideas of the bigger picture, or the consecutive waves, as described by Elliot. Nevertheless, as most of us trade intra-day, we usually don't have the time and also the financial resources to wait until our expectations for the bigger picture get true, because sometimes this may happen in 1 month, even in 1-2 years. And even if we can wait until then, a momentary volatile caprice of the market, due to some market shock, financial or economic crisis, may kill our trading session just a moment before reaching our final destination.

Everybody is welcome to share ideas, recommendations, criticism, and scepticism.

If I can give you a little trick, if you are trading with the retail you have more than 50% chances to be wrong. Myfxbook outlook is good for that : http://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook
You have access to history so you can check your trades and I can bet you you are going to see an improvement in performance if you trade against the herd only, wish you a good trading journey
x381966011250105 Le_Chiffre_
Thank you! This is vastly appreciated! :-)
x381966011250105 Le_Chiffre_
The conundrum I am trying to solve is the following: If you're trading on the right side, then it's all okay, you have plenty of scenarios to take your profit sooner or later. But when it happens to be trading on the wrong side, what do you do then. It should have something to do with cross-margin trades (longs and shorts) and playing more flexibly with the margin level, in order to pull out your wrong trades, and leave the correct ones until they minimise the loss. Of course, we need strong enough upward/downward moves in order to realise this, and we always risk when there are fast zig-zag scenarios. The problem is not when you trade on the right side. The problem, at it always comes to your mind, is when you've made a mistake...
Le_Chiffre_ PRO x381966011250105
A pre trade plan can help you on this. First of, the best way to protect yourself if you are on the wrong side is a stop loss. This will not only protect your capital from the market but also from you. The worst trader's enemy is himself. There are no fixed rules about stop loss placement, it really depends on individual strategy and style. One question that can help is " how far should the market go against me to prove me I am wrong". It is often the right place. Then what really helps is a Pre trade management in which you define your actions if different scenarios happens. e.g " I know I have an important level 1.10 but I feel it can go higher so If the hourly period after hitting the 1.10 is red, i close, if the pair breaks i keep". Those can look common sense when you are not in a trade but are not when you are in the trade. You are not able to thing totally objectively in a trade so write your action plan before.
x381966011250105 Le_Chiffre_
Thank you for your feedback! I used sl levels for some time in previous years, before I realised that pretty often I was betting on the right side, but momentary volatility closed my positions at loss. The problem with sl levels also has psychical dimension. It means something like - "okay, I am ready to take that loss, if this happens". And this really happens sometimes, and then you are "happy" with securing the loss you indicated as acceptable :-) This may then lead to another logical (psychic) chain in your trading strategy. As you've hit sl you most often would think that you've been wrong, and there is higher probability that you change the weight in your open positions in favour of the opposite direction. And what happens if the trend just decided to flirt around your sl, and then your earlier projection came back on the stage. You are again hitting sl level, and you feel really stupid. For this reason, I prefer to stay calm for as long as I can, and accept capital losses as much as the negotiated margin level. If things get wrong, I make opposite trades, with a bigger weight than the previous (wrong) one, and try to escape from the mistaken trade somewhere around 80% margin level, hoping that the opposite trade (since it is with a bigger size than the initial one) will build up enough money in order to minimise the loss from the mistaken one - only then I may use a tp level, in order to guarantee that at least something from the losing position will come back to me. In this sense, I agree with what you've written on your profile here - I don't trust to indicators, I don't trust too much to technical analysis. I just apply arithmetic, I calculate my critical levels in accordance with my capital, and I try to apply the ratios of trading more flexibly. Of course, I also have stop-loss limitations, but they are implied. By calculating the margin level, e.g. my trades are closed at 65%, I know exactly how much I would lose. For example: I enter with 100, this implies maximum loss of 35. But if I make opposite trade for 130 (e.g. immediately), then my loss is 100-(.65*130)=15.5

In fact, this is also stop-loss strategy. But it is more dynamic and more flexible. You can correct your stop-loss algorithms in accordance to market situation and in accordance to your risk appetite ;-)
x381966011250105 Le_Chiffre_
Regarding the calculations, I need to clarify. When you enter with 100, then you can lose maximum 35. When you open the second position at 130, then your margin is 130-100=30, and your maximum loss with both positions is 100-(.35*30)=89.5

But this will materialise only in very extreme situation, because you have 100 long and 130 short. So, while one is losing, the other is winning.

If you close the 100 position (e.g. if this is your total capital), then you remain with the position at 130. This means that if you have around 95 remaining capital, your margin level is around 73%, and you can accept losses until reaching capital 84.5. This means that your maximum loss will be 10 more (95-84.5).

This is what I am trying to figure out and apply in real time. I am building some mathematical matrices here and try to adjust the best scenarios and ratios for changing long/short trades in given unfavourable circumstances.

Technical analysis and indicators are games for the kindergarten ....

x381966011250105 Le_Chiffre_
Well, in fact, the described scenario is only at step one. Usually you can make to turn around a couple of times before you finally accept the loss. But still, this is much more flexible than applying 1-time sl levels. Of course, you need to stay around your computer and you need to apply your mathematics very quickly.
Le_Chiffre_ PRO x381966011250105
haha, this looks very complex to me. Trading is very personal, there are unlimited styles. I wish you the best in your trading style. The only recommendation i can give you is trade small when you start. This will enable to survive long enough to find out what works and what does not work to you.
x381966011250105 Le_Chiffre_
:-) Thanks, I am trading small, when testing myself. Everything here (technically) is about proportions. You can easily calculate whether you are doing that well, you can measure how well exactly, and you can see for how long you do that thing well ;-) Best wishes! Thank you very much for sharing that Community Outlook website with me!
x381966011250105 Le_Chiffre_
Hi again! Think about the following suggestion. For example: You enter long with 100. What IF instead of sl at 10% capital loss, you put pending order (sell stop) for short 50? ;-) Then, you may wait to see what will happen. If the price goes further down, you may wait for some time and close the short, when you think the price should go up. If it really goes up, you may choose when to close the long - when you think the loss is minimised, or ideally - when you enter positive grounds! OR, if the price goes up, you may cho0se what percentage of the 100 to close down. You may close long fifty, thus remaining with 50 short and 50 long, and then wait for some time to see what is the trend like. If we are in consolidation, it is all up to your patience to close both - short and long - at profit ;-) Why hurry up to use sl and tp, when we have pending orders ;-)

Thanks for the discussion, this really helps over here! ;-)
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