Daily Timeframe: The current situation on the shows that price has been, and still is consolidating between a daily supply area at 1.26386-1.25459 (surrounds the aforementioned weekly support swap level), and a long-term daily demand area coming in at 1.22877-1.23809 (located relatively deep within the aforementioned combined weekly demand/Quasimodo ). Let’s take a look on the 4hr timeframe to see what we can find.
4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that the buyers ultimately took control once the market opened at 1.23617, with the sellers showing little to no interest.
We mentioned in the previous analysis that our team had mixed views concerning the direction in which this pair will likely take - this still remains to be the case. 50% are looking for sells due to the fact that the Euro has been in a downtrend for longer than we can remember, while the other half are looking for buys since price is currently located around higher-timeframe demand (see above). This has consequently forced us to take trades ONLY if we see corresponding lower-timeframe confirmation.
At the time of writing, price is trading around a 4hr demand swap area at 1.24422-1.24588, where we are presently watching the 5/15 minute timeframes for confirmation to enter short (1.24401). Assuming that the sellers take control here, a move south may ensue down to 1.24. At this point, we’ll be looking to enter long – again with lower-timeframe confirmation around 1.24044, targeting 4hr resistance coming in at 1.25 that conveniently lines up beautifully with the current downward trending channel resistance (upper/lower limits: 1.28859/1.26043).
• Buy orders: 1.24044 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.23882).
• Sell orders: 1.24401 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.24657).