It was an unexpected reaction. Even if you believed the Short Euro
and Long Dollar views were crowded due to the popularity of divergent monetary policy
trades in the FX market, the extent of the EURUSD's rally after the ECB upgraded its QE
program was exceptional. It was the biggest rally since 3/18/2009 and backed by the heaviest volume
we have on FXCM record ( futures
posted the second most heaviest on its longer record). The question now is how much rally is there to this pair? That depends on how what percentage of the market feel it is time to back away from a clear fundamental bearing.