EURUSD: concrete short term scenario

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
581 2 11
With the ECB being almost solely focused on raising inflation to 2% and recent data showing it is way below their target (and it has in fact dipped), this pair will continue to be under selling pressure, driving it down further. The slide in oil             prices will only increase this pressure. Fact is that the euro             zone is struggling. Interest rates have been cut to practically zero and ECB president Mario Draghi has explicitly cited bond-buying as a possible tool. Although there is some disagreement on this between ECB members, it is expected that QE in the euro             zone will at least be seriously debated as of this week.

The dollar on the other hand has been gaining in strength the last few months with the DXY             shooting up to 88.28 last Friday.

This pair is still bearish in the daily as a rising hourly channel again failed to break the daily trend line . I now see it trading within a steep bearish channel and if it respects the upper trend line of this channel, it might break through support, then retrace only to decline further. I would enter the short conservatively, meaning only after break, retrace and subsequent bounce of resistance.

This is a concrete             short term scenario, lets wait and see if the pair follows “the script”. EU has been rather moody and choppy lately and market sentiment matters, so beware!
You don´t need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows - B. Dylan
Any possibility for breaking up of EURO ? (i.e. return to original currency) since Greece/Italy economies are in the toilet.
Having US fake "growth" and Saudi's pushing down the oil. We are definitely living in a crazy world.
+1 Reply
Hi Analycer, thank you for responding. I know the Dutch and German governments have had plans in place for a return to their national currencies since 2012. Officially as back up / emergency plans, but they are being maintained and kept up to date. I am not aware if any more such plans exist.

Greece and Spain's economies are actually growing well above the eurozone average but are suffering huge social and political tensions due to high unemployment and cuts in salaries and welfare. I live in Spain and see this every day. Italy is suffering from deflation.

Even though every now and then lip service is being paid to certain constituents, I think the real political will to break up the Eurozone is simply not there. And there are actually reports that say the richest Eurozone countries have become richer since the crisis. It is indeed a crazy world.
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