ICmarkets

Weekly outlook and review on the Euro

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
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Weekly Timeframe: Ever since we saw the market rebound from the weekly Quasimodo support level at 1.1109 (26/01/15), price has been seen hesitating below a weekly supply area coming in at 1.1678-1.1458. A break above this supply could very well clear the path north up to a major weekly swap level seen at 1.1758.

Daily Timeframe: Since the 12/02/15, the EUR/USD             pair (as per the daily timeframe ) has been seen consolidating between a small daily demand area visible at 1.1260-1.1318, and a daily swap level located at 1.1411. The 1.1411 barrier, in our opinion, remains a key obstacle to a move higher into the aforementioned weekly supply.

4hr Timeframe: Friday’s trading action saw the market break south from the week-long 4hr range at 1.1441/1.1336, which in turn saw price fake below a 4hr demand area at 1.1304-1.1318 into the 1.1278 4hr swap level (positioned deep within the small aforementioned daily demand area). Active buying was clearly present here as price rocketed back up to the daily swap level at 1.1411, which consequently saw two selling tails form into the close (1.1376).

Let’s just quickly recap here, so that we’re all on the same page… The weekly chart shows price is currently trading around the underside of weekly supply, while the daily chart is in a state of consolidation (see above) at the moment. So, where does this leave us on the 4hr timeframe? Well, a break above the aforementioned daily swap level this week would likely attract further buying towards a relatively fresh 4hr supply area at 1.1497-1.1462. Our team still has a pending sell order set just below this area at 1.1457, since this zone remains relatively fresh, and is located just within the limits of the aforementioned weekly supply area.

However, In the event that the sellers manage to hold the market below 1.1411, price may very well decline back down to 1.1278. It would be at this point (considering this level’s active history) we’d begin watching for lower timeframe buying confirmation around the 1.1282 mark for a quick bounce/scalp trade.

Current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: 1.1282 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).

• Sell orders: 1.1457 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.1503).

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