According to yesterday predicted, the EUR / USD corrected yesterday's first increase in the 1.1230 and then demand has led to successive increases and defeated yesterday's high of 1.1286. This led to increases in the vicinity of the 1,1350-90. Currently, the realization of profit, which got support in the form of better US data.
The economic calendar for Friday:
8:00 EUR Order factories in Germany
11:00 EUR GDP (YoY) Q1
11:00 EUR GDP (QoQ) Q1
14:30 USD Average Hourly wages
14:30 USD Change in employment in non-agricultural sectors
14:30 USD Participation in the labor market
14:30 USD Private sector employment excluding agriculture
14:30 USD Unemployment rate
18:30 USD speaks FOMC member Dudley
Tomorrow addition to the data from Europe also very important to know the data on the US labor market. It is the most important figure of the day, which will seriously affect the exchange rate of a currency pair discussed. Good data will be confirmation rebound in the US economy, despite the worse ISM reading this week. If the data turn out to be worse market will not have illusions that the Fed will try to postpone raising interest rates.
Forecast for Friday:
From a technical point of view, the currency pair is heavily subscribed, which should lead to a correction in the near future. However, keep in mind that the correction signal may be better readings from the US economy tomorrow. Otherwise, data worse than expected, will result in increases in the vicinity of today's peaks or even exceeding them.
If my assumptions are correct then you should tomorrow be considered as follows:
1) If US data turn out to be worse this demand should lead to growth in the 1.1315 area and then head for the , we tested today (Thursday) or 1,1350-1,1381. The natural purpose of this case, the above should be peaks of May in the area of 1.1456. If the US data will prove to be considerably weak, this may affect the EUR / USD rate in the medium term.
2) If the US data will be good or very good it will terminate the current increases and direct course to the south. Declines in this case should test the recent of 1.1225 that is. After piercing the support of supply should head towards 1.1189 and 1.11. This may mean that once again we will head towards the level of 1,0880-1,09.
Note: Do not forget about tomorrow's data from Europe and the ongoing negotiations between Greece and the EU.
Tomorrow's data are crucial for the EUR / USD market, which may lead to changes in expectations about interest rate hikes in the US. In addition, the market can be traced to the weaker readings in the future which negatively affect the readings of GDP in the US.