ForexWeeklyAnalysis

General Market Outlook - September 7th, 2014

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
257 1 0
*****INTERESTING PAIRS*****

EUR/USD             - "It depends on where price is"

- See the trade analysis I posted yesterday:
Risk Mitigation - Adaptive (Dynamic) Trading

- Current price doesn't not warrant any new positions
- BEAR: I'd consider opening shorts between 1.30/1.31 (stops above 1.31)
- BULL: I'd consider opening longs between 1.28/1.275 (stops below 1.275)

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GBP/USD             - Bullish (Pending longs above 1.6250)

- Daily chart posted a pinbar/hammer candlestick on Friday
- With no real retrace in this down move so far, 1.6250 is the line in the sand for bulls. If that level doesn't hold then it'll probably continue drifting down till 1.6000.
- Alternatively, knowing that people could be relying on the 1.6250 level to hold and knowing what people will do if that level breaks, it could also be a great opportunity for someone to set a bear trap.

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USD/CAD             - Bullish (Currently holding longs from 1.0825)

- Recall from last week "I'd only consider loading longs if price gets closer to the 1.081X level"
- So when price retraced on Thursday, I loaded some longs at 1.0825. I don't have a full position though, my other pending longs were lower but price didn't get there. I already moved my stop to BE, so I can't lose on this trade.
- My target is the same as last week, looking for price to retest the 1.1000 level

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*****CONFUSING PAIRS*****

AUD/USD             - If the upward channel that I drew is valid then price should go down to the low 0.93 level then bounce up?

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USD/JPY             - Bearish?? (You need wide stops to trade this one)

- Given the doji candlestick on Friday, I'm tempted to say there's a possible double top forming. (First top from Jan 2014)
- Wide stops = load half your normal position only. Try to load shorts close to 105.6X and place your SL at 106.6X

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XAG/USD             - Comparing the blue circles, the left one didn't have a green bar when it went down but the right one does, so I'm not as sure as I was last week.

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Note: Refer to last week's General Market Outlook if something doesn't make sense.

Risk Disclaimer: My analysis is provided solely as an educational tool. Should you decide to trade based on my analysis, do so at your own risk. I am not liable for any loss that you may incur. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

Trade Disclosure: All open positions are disclosed above, if I don't mention having one then it should be assumed at all times that I plan to trade based on my analysis, so take this into consideration as I may be biased.
Couple things to note:
- GBP/USD: opened with a gap down at 1.6170, which is where my pending buys filled. Seeing as how it gapped down, I was hesitant to hold my position so I exited when it went above 1.6200 for +30 pips. Now I'm just on the sidelines watching it.
- USD/CAD: seems like 1.0980 might be resistance level, so rather than wait for price to move 20 pips to hit my 1.10 target, I decided to exit = +155 pips
- USD/JPY: currently holding 1/2 position short on USD/JPY at 105.60 which is down 50 pips right now but 1/2 x -50 = I'm actually only down 25 pips. Probably was a bad decision taking this trade, so I'm going to cut it loose soon.

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