Over the past 7 years, EURUSD exhibited 4 major Up-Down mouvements. It is currently in the Down phase of the 4th event.
The major trend seems to be a funneling, i.e. lower Highs and higher Lows.
But a trend can also be seen in the rate of change of the mouvement amplitude, i.e. the distance between High and Low is decreasing with time.
If one extrapolates this rate of change to the current mouvement, the Bottom-Top distance would become 18.8%.
In turn, this would yield an expected Bottom price of ~1.179.
Note: This is a simple data analysis exercise. It is in no means based on any monetary policy forecast.
The major trend seems to be a funneling, i.e. lower Highs and higher Lows.
But a trend can also be seen in the rate of change of the mouvement amplitude, i.e. the distance between High and Low is decreasing with time.
If one extrapolates this rate of change to the current mouvement, the Bottom-Top distance would become 18.8%.
In turn, this would yield an expected Bottom price of ~1.179.
Note: This is a simple data analysis exercise. It is in no means based on any monetary policy forecast.