Johanes
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JLS: EURUSD Long, Medium & Short Term Target Zones

FX_IDC:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
The U-shape time series currency band indicates for EURUSD to downward in long term. The S-curve also indicates for downward in medium term and to upward in short term or the EURUSD will continue to align, realignment and continously realignment to downward. European holders of US Treasuries relative stable by not taking the opportunity for the USD appreciation by the EUR. Perhaps, this is driven by the continuing George Soros European Solidary provocation.

The time series interest rate differential based currency band also indicates for EURUSD to downward in medium term and to upward in short term by sterilization. The current estimated medium term target zone is 1.1800-1.0800, however at 20.00 % level of depreciation rate the ECB may initiate sterilization to slower the weakening of the EUR by the USD as permitted by the consensus. The 20.00 % level is important rate to evaluate to whether the CHF and JPY re-carried the EUR and EUR-denominated debt securities, and likely the CHF already re-carrying the EUR and EUR-denominated debt security by the European solodarity. Sterilization and carry trading however limits for slowing the weakening of EUR in short term and will resume to weaker in medium and long term by align, realign and continuously realignment to downward.

About EUR 3.00 trillion market sterilization and intervention undertaken by ECB in coordinated efforts with Fed, BOJ, SNB and BoC by raising the EURUSD for 15 % and confronted by the European parliement as the "helicopter money" to fuel the European economy. However, the U-shape, S-curve bands and the interest rte differential based currency band are collectively to indicate for EURUSD to downward in long term. At such, the forecast released by Robin Paul Krugman for Phase I and Phase II European crisis seems will be experienced.
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