Two Long Term Harmonic Plays

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
721 12 2
The 0.886 level held beautifully on Friday's downside move, as such has potentially completed a larger harmonic BC             leg.

Current price action can be seen as very similar to the last Euro             rally from the 1.1800 - 1.4900 move.

Bearing in mind the similarity, I have included a crab pattern to account for any abnormal gains towards exhaustive price levels. The CD leg for the crab would mimic the previous rally closely, and would line the Euro             up nicely with the much larger downtrend.

As I have stated previously, on another chart, the 0.786/0.886 levels were prime regions for scaling into increasing larger long positions.

There may still be room for downside probes but with the midweek FOMC speech from Big Bad Ben, short covering may prove a necessity for large funds to avoid being wrong footed/overly exposed to dollars. Price needs to clear the 1.2902 level for the CD leg to be considered constructive and find more buyers.

Note these patterns should really be traded at point D for maximum accuracy/trade success.
Closed a quarter of the trade on the approach to 1.2900.
Stops at 1.2935 50% of full stake.
Stop 2 at 1.2910 25% remaining stake.
Closed another 25% around 1.2900

Stop 1 at 1.2955
Stop 2 at 1.2940

Will re-enter long on deep fib pull backs(below 1.2940) assuming bullish price action confirms.
Stop 1 triggered
Stop 2 surviving for now.

CD leg struggled to clear the 1.2900/2 area.

Trade has been profitable despite the deteriorating leg here.
Will attempt small longs(1/4 normal size) as the swing low is approached based on fib levels 0.786/0.886 of the last climb (1.2795-1.2900) and bullish candle stick patterns/price rejection.

Stops will be 5-8 pips below the swing low if price turns constructive on the dips.

Took a small long between the 50/61.8 for a bullish AB=CD pattern.
Stop just below 1.2840, entry at 53 as price climbed.

25% of original trade from sub 1.28 still in play with stop at 1.2840 having survived the day's dip.
Stops now moved for both positions to 1.2955

AB=CD pattern has reached targets in the 35/50 region. Expect a pull back and consolidation before the next move.
Will close half of long from 1.2853 should 1.2925 fail.
Will re-enter long on a larger pull back of the CD leg.
Short hedge for 1.2797 long established.
Short is 1.5 x original stake/net 50% larger.
Additional short will be taken at 1.3013 for complete short.
Short position will be 2 x Long from 1.2797
Short hedge will be killed if price moves above 1.3025/30
Hedge at 1:1 ratio with long now/ waiting for stability and direction.
Short Hedge Closed @ 0.786/0.886 CD leg.
Long will be closed if 1.2835 surrenders.
Closing long on H1/H2 trend line failure.

Trade now looks favourable to attack downside targets following a retrace/pullback.

Larger Harmonic CD leg may fail as the established AB=CD pattern pushes towards the 1.28 handle. Spot needs to close above 1.2902 for CD leg to remain constructive and is now looking unlikely.
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