EURUSD: After The Fall...Now What?

Two weeks ago, I posted this chart and predicted that this pair would drop. I feel sorry for those that kept trying to tell me that it was DEFINITELY going up! Especially that guy who argued with me about it and even got angry with me! Hope you didn't bet your house on it, buddy! Here was the chart I posted:

While the patterns didn't quite work out, my overall wave count and the ending diagonal I had shown worked out to PERFECTION! It 's not always necessary for patterns to work out in order for a trade to work. As I've said before and continue to say, patterns are only a part of my overall strategy and I don't completely trade just on patterns.

WAVE COUNT
So what is happening now? In the MAIN CHART above, I have removed the "failed" patterns and left the working patterns in place. Right now, prices have dropped and filled a "Gartley" pattern that I had posted about 2 weeks ago. From this point, I am expecting that prices will now retrace back up somewhat in a bounce from the recent sudden drop which is indicative of a wave 3 move. In fact, I see that recent drop as a wave (iii) of 3 down. So now what we should be seeing is a wave (iv) of 3 retrace up. How far up? It could retrace a good bit as is usual after a sudden and explosive wave (iii) drop. Also, if my wave count is correct, the wave (ii) was brief and sideways. Which indicates that wave (iv) should be lengthy and most likely a zigzag pattern.

HARMOINC PATTERNS
Tthere is a very clear and valid butterfly pattern that is close to completion. I do believe that prices will continue to drop and fill that butterfly pattern though.But before we see this butterfly complete, we should see a bounce and then after the wave (iv) bounce is done, then a wave (v) should go down and complete the butterfly. From there, I would expect a larger bounce in a wave 4 up.. But we'll deal with that when the time comes.

MY TRADE PLAN
If I see some more bullish PA to confirm that prices will indeed move up, then I may look to get LONG to catch this retrace. But for now, I'll just be watching. If I do not get the bullish price action confirmation, I'll be content to sit and watch for this retrace to complete and then look for a good place to get SHORT.

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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Comment:

I wish to remind anyone who sees this post that there is still a SOLID downtrend in place and that taking any countertrend trade here is very risky. This would be trading a wave iv and those are very difficult to predict how they will unfold. This is why I am NOT taking any LONG trade on this market right now and will need some SOLID bullish PA for me to do so. Otherwise, as I said in my post, I am content to just sit and watch and wait for a chance to get SHORT again!