While the patterns didn't quite work out, my overall wave count and the I had shown worked out to PERFECTION! It 's not always necessary for patterns to work out in order for a trade to work. As I've said before and continue to say, patterns are only a part of my overall strategy and I don't completely trade just on patterns.
So what is happening now? In the MAIN CHART above, I have removed the "failed" patterns and left the working patterns in place. Right now, prices have dropped and filled a "Gartley" pattern that I had posted about 2 weeks ago. From this point, I am expecting that prices will now retrace back up somewhat in a bounce from the recent sudden drop which is indicative of a wave 3 move. In fact, I see that recent drop as a wave ( iii ) of 3 down. So now what we should be seeing is a wave (iv) of 3 retrace up. How far up? It could retrace a good bit as is usual after a sudden and explosive wave ( iii ) drop. Also, if my wave count is correct, the wave (ii) was brief and sideways. Which indicates that wave (iv) should be lengthy and most likely a pattern.
Tthere is a very clear and valid that is close to completion. I do believe that prices will continue to drop and fill that though.But before we see this complete, we should see a bounce and then after the wave (iv) bounce is done, then a wave (v) should go down and complete the . From there, I would expect a larger bounce in a wave 4 up.. But we'll deal with that when the time comes.
MY TRADE PLAN
If I see some more PA to confirm that prices will indeed move up, then I may look to get LONG to catch this retrace. But for now, I'll just be watching. If I do not get the price action confirmation, I'll be content to sit and watch for this retrace to complete and then look for a good place to get SHORT.
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
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There is nothing more to add! The Pair is bearish furthermore!
Longterm View: LongTerm Swing-Dynamic vs. MidTerm Bearish Flag
When we have a look at the longterm Chart we see a clear and very wide downchannel. At the beginning of 2015 we have kissed the downtrend channels bottom @ 1,04. From that Level on we started a Rebound nearly till the Minimum correction fibo (38,2) . here is also based the EMA 200 as a resist.
Now the Pair is forming a bearish flag! (blue). This bearish flag will generate a TP at the downside @ below the parity @ 0,965 if it will be triggered.
The cyclical /-or longterm swingview will generate a longterm tp @ the downtrendchannels upper edge @ 1,33! ( Magenta "3"?). On it s way up to that cyclical target several resist zones are based:
-EMA 200: 1,135
-0,38 fibo: 1,18
-0,5 fibo: 1,22
-0,618 fibo: 1,26
-Resistance tone formed of former lows between 1,2-1,25
Last but not least - here is the pullback!
EURUSD short short short
Draghi invited Investors to hold on their short strategies - me included :-) My Analysis remains short. If we trade below the sma 200 and the flags bottom edge @ 1.105 the next Logical/technical TP would be 1.04. Prices below that Level will generate a Little selloff.