Price has broken through a rising trend starting in mid-April that has carried through May and until the end of June.
The Tenkan and Kijun lines (blue and red respectively) have crossed signalling the beginnings of a trend reversal. This is supported by 12-period moving averages crossing under their corresponding 24-period moving averages (exponential-blue, simple-red). The has also signalled a downtrend with consistent momentum.
If the price were to drop further crossing the Senkou B (red line of the Kumo cloud) and then not much further the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 1.09641, the Chikou (green) would have likely moved through the price into free space giving room for strong downtrend momentum. Final confirmation of a significant downtrend would be the eventually crossing of Senkou A & B (green & red respectively) to give a Kumo cloud.
If was has been stated above realises a possible entry would be 15-20 pips below the 0.5 Fibonacci. An exit would depend much on the momentum indicators of the Chikou and . If momentum doesn't slow price may carry through the channel to eventually test the March low earlier this year.
The referendum in Greece will have a strong impact on immediate price action. Irrelevant of whether the result is 'yes' or 'no' I think its more about how quickly policies are put in place following it. With respect to the US, the Jun NFP results were below expectations, so for all the positive data in the lead up to it and the Fed continuing its monologue of possible interest rate increase later in the year the employment numbers kinda just dropped the ball. If the July NFP recovers it may be the catalyst for strong momentum strengthening the USD and thus sending the Euro spiralling.
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