r_rudnitsky

EURUSD - Price action prior and after Fed rate hike

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
3
This is a post, supplementing the previous one relating to EURUSD. May be, AUDUSD is also repeating this pattern, be prepared)
This is not a forecast, this is how a simple tick volume and basic tech.analysis may help you identify trade opportunities.
There a 6 "Notes" on the chart.

Note 1: An extremely high tick volume caught my eyes, matching to a Pinbar (the highest volume), followed by a heavy-tick-volume Doji.
The range, formed by a pinbar (open-close levels) is shown as a blue zone (first one on the chart - Note 3). Then the price gradually started moving downwards, showing lower highs/ lows in the "micro" trend
Note 2: Then the price started going upside in a rather tight range, forming a triangle - you may see that the area of the Note 3 was keeping prices below. And, at the end, price easily (???) sliced through this "Resistance" zone (do you still believe in classical resistance levels? :)
This sharp upmove, according to EWA, is a terminal movement - when price leaves the triangle, then it should! reverse.

It reversed - and it was not a surprise - just imagine what a simple trap for eurusd bulls it was... It reversed right on Fed's decision to increase the rate. Although that % hike was already priced-in...

Note 4: I put Fibo net right through open & close price levels for the H1 candle that was completed exactly after the news. Projected targets to the downside - 238 and 262 Fibo (I do not usually apply Fibo extensions, if you practice a bit, you will just spot mathematical specifics with the numbers). IF YOU PLACED A SELL ORDER RIGHT A THE "CLOSE" PRICE LEVEL, OR AFTER A SHORT CONSOLIDATION (THAT CONFIRMS THE DOWNMOVE) - ALMOST SURE - PRICE WILL GO 2X THE LENGHT OF THE STRONG MARIBOZU CANDLE. SEE NOTE 5 AND CHECK FIBO LEVELS.
Tick volumes for the H1 candle I mentioned above - where also HIGH.

Note 6. Price pulled back and started consolidating again - and you see - not even touching your potential sell entry. At that point the consolidation range would look like an indication that the price will proceed further to go up. But! breaking to the downside - it completed the same measured move/ distance.

I think there will be another leg down, but after a broader consoldiation - whether in form of a triangle (3-3-3-3-3) or a flat (that will need to have 5! waves in its' C wave that is unfolding now)

Hope this is helpful.
Good luck!
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