Longer term Elliott Wave analysis on EURUSD

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
This is just a fun little exercise as I don't really do such long term forecasting, but today was a slow market day.

It seems apparent EU is in a symmetrical triangle. Based on the prior up movement of 2002 through mid-2009 being an ABC correctional move (A = C when you account for the irregular b wave in the middle), this sideways movement is a B/X. That means we can have a symmetrical triangle as we're seeing develop as they only show up in 4, B, and X waves.

According to EWP , the D leg of a triangle can exhibit characteristics of both an impulse and corrective wave. This is because they follow a C wave and thus are first waves, but they are still occurring within a corrective pattern.

Our W wave has occurred and we're currently in the formation of the X. If it has not already reached its reversal point then it should in the 1.2630-80 area (Nov 2012 low and 61.8 fib of the W wave). Then price travels up in a 5w Y wave to the top of the triangle. The 61.8 fib level of the triangle's B wave would put us around 1.3960. Based on the slope of the triangle's TL, we could see that by late 2013 to early 2014.

Again, just for fun analysis and for posterity so I can look back and see how it actually plays out!


I believe that this week's action shows the A wave to be complete. We'll now make a B wave up to somewhere possibly in the 3225-3340 area before a final C leg down. That would complete this X wave before strong up movement towards the triangle's top TL begins.
I've considered it. :D... But I think IF this does play out, it may only reach 1.35 for now, ending around June. Let's see ;D
Since the move to the triangle's upper TL would be a 5 wave sequence, it would involve an internal sequence of at 3 up moves and 2 downward corrections. Moving to 1.35 by June before correcting would not be out of the realm of this forecast.

One other thing to consider - the current X wave doesn't really appear to break down into a 3 wave movement. So it's entirely possible that we also get an upwards correction and then further downside (below the near time lows) before this X is complete.