Looking back at the week, I notice now that this price action was very logic for the following reasons :
1. We completed a patter so we can expect a retracement to the upside.
2. The classical retracement levels for a are the 0.382 and the 0.618 fibonacci levels, which we had not reached yet.
3. There was also the 2618 trade ( , break of neck line and ) where we did not reach that same 0.618 .
All of the above pointed in the direction that there was more to the upside on this pair, but as I was biased on looking for short opportunities I failed to see them. Luckily there is such a thing as the weekend where we reflect on the trades from the last week and now it seems all very clear to me.
Lesson learned : Trade what you see, not what you want to see !
Where are we now ?
1. The of the has been reached, the 2618 pattern is ready to be traded.
2. We are at a level that has served as resistance several times in the recent past.
3. We reached the of the pattern as well, but did not reach the 0.786 (which could be an indicator for a potential taking price higher)
What will it bring us ?
Personally I will not jump into the trade first thing Monday morning. I will watch price action closely to check if this level holds. Then there are 2 possibilities :
4. Price action breaks and closes above 1.09 => we can expect the big to be tested again.
5. Price action tests the level again and fails to break it => we can now short and look for the 0.382 and . Even a test of the lower is possible (100% retracement)
Have you been caught in a short bias as well, has this pair tricked you too ? Or did you manage to catch the whole move up ? Your comments are always welcome below !
It's easy to provide comments in hindsight ... , but where are your charts ? ;)