zzfx

usual suspects

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
216 11 1
round numbers and traps...

who cares, apply the plan, and take your goal.

zzfx
zzfx
2 years ago
price at current s-line. anything can happen. Actual net bull... trailing a 8 pips loss..aiming for my 10 pips and more, 1.3375 50 % retracement on possible squeeze. system has not confirmed the reversal, and so, I am wrong. I am going to ratio spead 2:1 on the bull side, and as long as a target is reached, it is a free trade.
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zzfx
2 years ago
You see whats funny is that my mind is now thinking '' multi day reversal possibility...Over press on this false conviction. The only thing that matters is for me to reach my daily scenario B goal that is 30 pips or scenario a net 10 pips. Thats 3% or 1% step UP...! thats all that counts... Will it really reach a 50% retracement? thats not what we are betting on,... where playing the minimum range. yes we are alert...but we must not let greed take over. Just take your goal, the rest is not important.
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zzfx
2 years ago
And now im thinking down.,... Mood changes as time passes, ...i see things differently. That is all an illusion. The plan is straight forward. simply wait for it.
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zzfx
2 years ago
The move is down, sell off in the works.
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zzfx
2 years ago
could of taken my profits and reached my goal for the day ( twicet oday), but I decided to be greedy moving my targets both times as the moved occurred. And so, now you take the risk of not reaching your target, and even take a loss if things just stagnate from here... Whats done is done, look to close your shorts on the next leg down under current low.
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zzfx
2 years ago
trying to catch the low is a suckers games. just take your profits on this leg lower.
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zzfx zzfx
2 years ago
1 minute later i was guessing the bottom, to cover my incapacity to close a break even day. what a dumb ass.
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zzfx
2 years ago
missed it by a pips..... possible daily low might be in is my thought. Confirmation over .33.
everything is going fucked up today...as I am sizing the moves...but I keep missing my targets.
Just close all positions on this possible rebound. ... damage control. created an unacceptable trailing loss.
break even and move out of the way..
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zzfx
2 years ago
all talk no action. not a good day, even if system performed perfectly. Recap and fix the problem /learn/elaborate solutions. As for now, What ever happens happens. Aiming to recoup trailing loss. 50/50 odds i get by this afternoon...or first thing in the morning. Or not. not good.
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zzfx
2 years ago
Today was a perfect learning experience day: As I am the one that fucked up. The only one to blame: SO where did it all start going wrong?

I positioned my straddle under the s-line that was never given to us. With a small gain that covered the spread. Good.

Then as scenario A triggered, I had placed my short target, but deeply inside was more concerned about the 1.3332 break down,
on a daily and weekly chart. This said, I never had real intentions of closing the position and take my target as I must do 1.3342.

Plus, I was posting the idea as the move confirmed it self, '' maybe it will go lower'' ....WTF does that mean?
I switched my Focus, from reaching my goal in $, to guessing and speculating on where price could go.

Thats where it all goes wrong. as the pair reaches 1.3342 low and moves back up to 1.3355. I reversed my position, even if signal was at high range of 1.3361. Not only that,
I increased my risk, from 1% to 2%, and was trailing a -1% loss.

once I realized that, I then took a short position, going for a 2:1 ratio spread, that would be a free trade around 1.3322 and aiming for 1.3372, Ok.
I was at least following the system somehow on direction. But then Price went back up over 1.3357 and then I closed my short.
Then I added one more long, now in position at 3% instead of 2% my system says to be. This has no reason to be other then greed. No new low to press, nothing pure greed.
And we are trailing a 20 pips loss on top of it.. one from initial straddle and one from failed anticipated scenario B trigger.

I was setting myself up for a Big fail. maybe one that occurs only 30 % of the time but still, And what had to happen happened. I bended the system, not waiting for the trigger to go off,..

And I had to take a 3% loss once 1.3341 was taken out,... making it a -5% without scenario B never been triggered. Unacceptable.
I know my intentions where good, BUT thats not part of the equations.

So then I took short for 20 pips, that should of brought us down to 1.3322, betting 3%, That one worked, and and brought me back to break even minus fees, -1.5% trailing loss.

And so...at this point I had:

left my target run away for the day by 1 or 2 pips.
Caught up anticipating scenario B before triggers went off, got faked out on that one also, then went against the system direction, still anticipating scenario B, and took the hit. -5% .
Then risking another 3%, I got back to even, BUT, if I exposed myself to a huge down fall.Still I did not hesitate to reverse my trade, thats the only good thing so far, and the ratio spread i took to regulate my position before. As we can see, I was not sure what I was doing. I was going about..... IT has to become more precise and objective. Just math.

Up till now, I was somehow following the system. And was at break even....

And then it just went down the drain from here: WTF happened? The next few trades from here where plain sabotage. Lets analyse them.

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zzfx
2 years ago
4 trades created out of self sabotage: Trailing a -1.5% loss, and just going buzzurk.

went long 4 % at 1.3325 the worst possible price, and got stopped out under 1.3317
went short 4% at 1.3319 with a 1.3324 ridiculous stop. NON SENSE got stopped out,
and then long again for 4% at 1.3323 closed right under 1.3309.

In a matter of a few hours, I had sabotaged a neutral day, and created a -12% hole in my account.
I must add that I was lucky enough to have reduced leverage by half last week.... What a mess.

But this was bound to happen. I have been respecting the plan daily and have a winning rate over 80% of the time...
But this here was a complete disaster. This must be a lesson. I must make sure it will not happen again. How can I never do this again.

Up till then, we can say anticipating scenario B off the news was a Ok idea, but doing what I did here,....is only proof that I am not ready to increase my accounts size.

Work on this. Fix this issue. What ever it takes.

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