This is my first post here. I will try to give long-term analyses for the instruments I've been watching as I learn the charting abilities of Trading View. I consider myself as an intermediate-level trader with 2 years of experience. I started trading with cryptocurrencies , made a lot of quick money, then lost it all. Sounds familiar, eh? Then I saw that there are great opportunities in financial markets and began learning the art and science of speculation. I am still a learner and an experimental trader. I came here both to benefit from this great charting website and to see how other traders react to my ideas, so please do not hesitate to share your opinions! Enough introduction; let's pass on to the most traded thing on earth.
In the semilog chart here we see that the price is in a down-sloping consolidation right below the .5 UML (this is how I prefer to write parallels, U denoting the upper side). Recently the price has bounced from the SL, agreeing once more the choice of the . A retest of .5 UML is likely before going further down.
As for , the most recent low shows a greater momentum than the preceding one in July 2012. Moreover, the most recent high in April 2014 could not reach the level of the previous high occurred May 2011. These both show the strength of the momentum. Lately, the jumped from around 2% with crossover in January 2015, but it showed no strength to break the oversold zone. With the crossover right around the 20% level, this also shows the continuation of the bear strength in the long term.
We are now below the .618 line shown in the chart. The .786 level is also a cluster zone, so it's likely that the price will test that zone, too, but no mortal on the Earth now knows what the outcome of that test will be.
As a result, one should seek for longs in the lower time frames until we reach .5 UML, and then look for shorting opportunities.
I wish this analysis will be helpful for you (and for me, too). Don't forget to share your comments!
Happy trading to all!