TradeVulture

EURUSD: First Touch of Support Lost

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
1604 27 12
Expecting a smack here and then progression back to what was gained. I don't trade forex . This is for my own observation and study.
Shunyi
2 years ago
You Don


In this earlier post, if I understood correctly, the current leg is a test of the support in the yellow box on the left. The top of that box is nearly 1.2. Why do you suggest in this post that we have tested the support at around 1.146x and ready to go down? Thank you!
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TradeVulture Shunyi
2 years ago
The boxes are not to scale, just to indicate which legs correspond to each other. Your first touches should be concerned with the current leg you are in. Look for swing highs and lows, and you will find legs.
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Shunyi TradeVulture
2 years ago
But how do you know it is not going to break that support and go for the next one? Why not touch 1.146 and then break 1.146 to go for the next level? Thank you!
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TradeVulture Shunyi
2 years ago
Because of the leg we are retracing.
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Shunyi TradeVulture
2 years ago
but this leg was stimulated by the ECB comment. Not a natural PA development. Monday's action is often unimportant.
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TradeVulture Shunyi
2 years ago
If that is the case, then how did I know we were going to get a big smack 5 days ago when I made this chart?
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Shunyi TradeVulture
2 years ago
hehe...exactly, how do you know? I see the potential at 1.146x level. And I believe many people also see that. The question is people can not be sure if that is the top, or 1.153 is the top, or even 1.2 is the top...or how deep is this retracement after 1.146x will be?
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TradeVulture Shunyi
2 years ago
Because I know which leg to look at, and what has been tested orn ot.
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Shunyi TradeVulture
2 years ago
But the 1.2x level hasn't been tested...
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TradeVulture Shunyi
2 years ago
Have to progress through the current legs first before we can think about going there.
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Shunyi TradeVulture
2 years ago
Thank you! But in this chart you seem to believe it will test the current lows at 1.05 level before it goes back up testing the 1.2? I mean I have a strong suspition that the current distribution started a bit premature to test the lows.
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TradeVulture Shunyi
2 years ago
Dissy always starts well before the move down.
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Shunyi TradeVulture
2 years ago
? what do you mean?
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TradeVulture Shunyi
2 years ago
distribution happens before the leg down.
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Shunyi TradeVulture
2 years ago
Thank you! Do you learn this by observing and experience? How can I spot the early signs of distribution then?
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TradeVulture Shunyi
2 years ago
Think of it like this: price approaches a significant level of resistance. As it is approaching, momo is slowing long before. Big players are distributing (exiting positions). They start applying the brakes before they get there. Progression happens during this process, where levels of support that were left untested get tested etc. Once everything is exhausted during distribution, price begins a leg down.
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Shunyi TradeVulture
2 years ago
Thank you for your reply! Would you suggest any book on the topic? I think looking at bigger tf is also important, right?
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TradeVulture Shunyi
2 years ago
Bigger frames are more significant than smaller. But you must learn to look at all of them and see how they fit together. There is no book that teaches this, as far as I know.
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Shunyi TradeVulture
2 years ago
I see this as water flow, and everything in motion, the phase goes in circles, starting, accelerating, slowing, and then stop. It is the stop that we must observe. And it is highly subjective at certain levels, such as this 1.146-1.153 zone. If bigger time frame is more important, then I would have to say I don't think this reversal we are seeing now is the leg to the test of lows. It will bounce back up from 1.106x level, as it is a new support gained. What do you say?
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InvesBursa
2 years ago
Hi TradeVulture.
Very good. I see one, two, three bounce in level of the 1,10515 to go more up with target in 1,1537 and 1,1876.
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Shunyi InvesBursa
2 years ago
What do you mean 1,2,3 bounces? I think you missed 1.1680. No?
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InvesBursa Shunyi
2 years ago
Greeting Shunyi.
Elliott wave it´s the way.!!
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Shunyi InvesBursa
2 years ago
Hi there. Most of the models are similar in some ways.
Elliott Waves are also very subjective. So in your analysis, we will skip 1.168, but go from 1.1537 straight to 1.1876? I actually think 1.168 has bigger chance to be touched than 1.1876.
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InvesBursa Shunyi
2 years ago
Yes, agree.
But my analysis it´s in Time Frames Majors.
Thank´s Shunyi.
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Shunyi InvesBursa
2 years ago
if you look back in monthly chart, 1.168x level is where the whole upward trend started, so it definately has a role. 1.1876 is also important, but I am not sure whether we touched it already, and with the downward trend pressure and market shocks, it might be hard to reach. Anyways, we will see. Good luck! This leg up might take some time to pan out, given the strong bearish bias of the market...
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TradeVulture Shunyi
2 years ago
Fibs just give you levels. They don't tell you progression.
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TradeVulture
2 years ago
Completed short for approximately 600pips.
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