In this earlier post, if I understood correctly, the current leg is a test of the support in the yellow box on the left. The top of that box is nearly 1.2. Why do you suggest in this post that we have tested the support at around 1.146x and ready to go down? Thank you!
The boxes are not to scale, just to indicate which legs correspond to each other. Your first touches should be concerned with the current leg you are in. Look for swing highs and lows, and you will find legs.
hehe...exactly, how do you know? I see the potential at 1.146x level. And I believe many people also see that. The question is people can not be sure if that is the top, or 1.153 is the top, or even 1.2 is the top...or how deep is this retracement after 1.146x will be?
Thank you! But in this chart you seem to believe it will test the current lows at 1.05 level before it goes back up testing the 1.2? I mean I have a strong suspition that the current distribution started a bit premature to test the lows.
Think of it like this: price approaches a significant level of resistance. As it is approaching, momo is slowing long before. Big players are distributing (exiting positions). They start applying the brakes before they get there. Progression happens during this process, where levels of support that were left untested get tested etc. Once everything is exhausted during distribution, price begins a leg down.
I see this as water flow, and everything in motion, the phase goes in circles, starting, accelerating, slowing, and then stop. It is the stop that we must observe. And it is highly subjective at certain levels, such as this 1.146-1.153 zone. If bigger time frame is more important, then I would have to say I don't think this reversal we are seeing now is the leg to the test of lows. It will bounce back up from 1.106x level, as it is a new support gained. What do you say?
Hi there. Most of the models are similar in some ways.
Elliott Waves are also very subjective. So in your analysis, we will skip 1.168, but go from 1.1537 straight to 1.1876? I actually think 1.168 has bigger chance to be touched than 1.1876.
if you look back in monthly chart, 1.168x level is where the whole upward trend started, so it definately has a role. 1.1876 is also important, but I am not sure whether we touched it already, and with the downward trend pressure and market shocks, it might be hard to reach. Anyways, we will see. Good luck! This leg up might take some time to pan out, given the strong bearish bias of the market...