However, in this case, I can see it really happening and going back to at least 1.07 after this test if the resistance. As long as we don't go above 1.17-1.18 this pair is bearish in the long term (monthly view).
The main point is the resistance zone as you state and which I confirm in the last part of my comment. This month could proof to be interesting. If we stay lower and even form a nice bearish candle that goes to like 1.12 region we could see a continuation of this bearish move to 1.08 and 1.07.