ICmarkets

The weak ahead on the Euro...

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
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Weekly timeframe perspective: The Euro pair may well have ended the week closing positively at 1.0966, but let’s not forget that price has been and still is trading only a stone’s throw away from a major weekly swap (resistance) level coming in at 1.1096. In the event that price manages to get above this barrier this week, further upside will likely be seen towards a weekly supply area positioned at 1.1449-1.1278.

Daily timeframe perspective: Looking at the daily timeframe , we can see that last week’s rebound from the daily swap level visible at 1.0716 rocketed prices higher not only on Thursday, but Friday as well. This, as you can see, saw price come very close to attacking the high 1.1051 - a break above this little beauty would likely see price shake hands with the aforementioned weekly swap level!

4hr timeframe perspective: The March NFP number came in way below expectations, thus forcing the EUR/USD pair northbound in yesterday’s session. This burst of buying energy took out both1.0900 and 1.1000, which in turn, saw price smash into, and slightly rebound, from a 4hr resistance zone coming in at 1.1051-1.1011 (located just below the weekly swap level mentioned above at 1.1096).

So, with all of the above taken into account, what do we see happening this week? Well, to begin with, today’s volatility will very likely be extremely low, since banks across the UK, Europe, Australia and New Zealand are closed in observance of Easter Monday. Ultimately though, our team is not expecting much more buying to be seen this week, since the Euro is, as we’re sure you can all see, in one monstrous downtrend at the moment. On top of that, let’s not forget that price is also trading just below the aforementioned weekly swap (resistance) level.

Therefore, one could either look to join in selling from the 4hr resistance zone , or wait to see if price fakes above here towards the weekly swap (resistance) level lurking just above in red. Due to our conservative trading nature, we favor the latter. Once, or indeed if price breaks above this 4hr zone, and the approach is clean, we’ll likely place a pending sell order just below the weekly swap (resistance) level at 1.1087, with a stop placed above the 4hr decision-point supply area seen marked with a green arrow to the left at 1.1143-1.1114.

Current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).


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