Let's try this again - FET Short

FET has hit a 6.85 just as it did in its last market cycle top. I think that from here there is a chance that it dumps down to the 2.618 area as an initial dump. This is approximately around $1.22.

Once this initial dump takes place, it will likely do a nice bounce back upwards, which typically sets up another dump/short opportunity. This bounce will probably take us back up to around $2.50. So a nice long opportunity within a short opportunity. If this plays out as it did last time, you should be able to short down to around 57 cents. So first short - about 60%, counter trend long - 100%, second short op - 73%. That's IF this plays out the same way as it did last cycle.

If we just continue bullish - my next upward target is $4.52.

Trade closed: stop reached:

Looks like it is probably headed to 4.52ish. There wasn't any confirmation on this one - but the fib setup compared to the last cycle was intriguing.

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OK - this looks to be a fake-out. Perhaps this short trade idea might actually get validated. The market has been very screwy today so far.

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FET is continuing to trend on the hourly timeframe - so far it looks like it wants to head to 4.52.

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I posted an idea for the bullish scenario. Targets are 4.54 and 7.28. I've been trading FET on the hourly timeframe

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If this actually ends up playing out, I will crap myself.

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I think that a nice entry may be given around $3.00 if you are looking to short FET. This push up should be pretty telling.

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this bounce should reveal to us if this short opportunity is going to play out or not. This will likely serve as a prime entry if we ultimately get rejected and this is a good short op. Otherwise my eyes are on $4.52 as a next target.

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We had a nice bearish 2 week close. Still feeling strong about this short.

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If Bitcoin breaks out of this triangle - and goes and taps around 85k, then I could see this going up to 4.52...where it then may actually top out.

Comment:

This may actually be a rising wedge on BTC. If we get a bearish week this week, the hanging man on the weekly chart may get confirmation for BTC. That would support this short.

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Ideally, we would like to close this week at $2.77 or below. That would be an excellent bearish case.

Comment:

this may be what is developing.

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and here we go with our first major spill : )

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So, we actually hit the 3.618 as the first pivot point. This is due to FET doing the big fake-out over the 6.85, which skewed the percentages as seen in the first market cycle top in the last bull run. (2021)

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So, we did get a nice 50% short out of this idea. Now we are gearing back up for another short. I think that the prime entry is coming shortly, around 2.70ish. I will say that the weekly candlesticks do look different than what they did in the cycle that I am comparing this to.

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OK - it looks to be going as expected since the last update. I took on another short position at 2.60 this morning. We seem to be getting rejection from this area. This could of course change, but I think that starting your short positions again within this area is wise. You can always just get stopped out and reposition if it goes against you in the short term.

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OK - so we are probably headed back up into the short zone again short term. I consider the short zone 2.54ish and above.

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I took profits on my short from $2.60 here. I think that we might get another shot at $2.54 and above to take another short position, granted that we don't switch back to bullish.

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Well, I had to add back to my short once I saw that local resistance was holding. So, away she blows.