intelligentsia
Long

FSLR approaching a critical point

NASDAQ:FSLR   FIRST SOLAR INC
Dear reader,

Do not trust me. I am a beginner in terms of performance and veteran in terms of experience. The market does not care about the latter remember that always.

This is my analysis for FSLR a stock I have traded successfully and unsuccessfully in the past.

Where are we standing?

Longer timeframe:
- Inside a wide multi-week box starting early December 2017 consolidating the 50 point run from the lows.
- Current price action is at approaching resistance.

Shorter timeframe:
- Stock acting strong after a 1-week small consolidation in early March.

Even longer timeframe (monthly):
- We sit in front of volume pocket from the calamitous 2011 fall. 112 should be the longer timeframe target for a future move.

Where are we heading:

Scenario 1:
- Rejection of multi-year resistance and we go back to trade inside the box or consolidate around the current level. (red line / weekly timeframe )

Scenario 2:
- Continuation previous to consolidation at the 75-76 level. 2018 highs. (orange horizontal line / daily timeframe ))

Scenario 3:
- This is where things get interesting and for this, you need the monthly chart as the next point of resistance will be 112.12 YES, 37 points above of the current price action. (purple line / monthly timeframe )
I admit Scenario 3 is short-term is a bit wishful thinking yet worth keeping in mind as possible.

How to trade it:
- If you have traded this from within the box adjust your stops accordingly closer to the top of the box.
- In the longer timeframe leaps could be potentially interesting with the bigger goal in mind.

Thanks for reading. Views are my own.
As good old Henry the V said....."Once more unto the breach"!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOOZDO5KDv4
Reply
Great analysis. I would like to add that the way it ran up 174% is very important. Multiple gaps and many horizontals flags indicate very strong buying. This is not your regular run up by any means. If it breaks the resistance, there is a very good probability of another explosive move. Good Trading!
+1 Reply
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