has failed to follow the grey up fork (and make it to the ML) - so now it's expected to complete the flipside of the recent up move (ie. make it to the downside the same price extent as it did to the upside, measured by the cyan quasi-fork), pivoting on the grey MLH. I think it seems to be following the red fork now, so I went short. However, the problems to consider are:
1) we're in a big-picture/long-term up trend,
2) both currencies are recently relatively equally strong.