GBP/AUD Fundamental + Tech Analysis

FX:GBPAUD   British Pound / Australian Dollar
GBP/AUD - Daily MACD is finally turning after the recent big rally, suggest the fight is on for the last Candle of 2014 to set a Tech level for 2015. Daily TF multiple Doji and the last a Bullish Engulfing (but could be discounted for the day before Christmas in low liquidity). So pulling out to the weekly we see a Doji indicating equal power between Bulls/Bears and a sign the rally could be temporarily over.

USD - big GDP y.y 5% but more recent data suggests USD recovery may flatten out in coming months. USD/JPY I believe is a good proxy for USD strength and is topping.

AUD/USD is putting in a temp bottom and could see a bounce up to 0.84 before resuming down to perhaps 0.79. If there is a bounce to these levels there is the strong possibility the RBA will intervene in currency market or perhaps a further rate cut.

GBP/USD - big miss on GDP y.y figure 2.6% v's 3% expected, therefor will likely see some more downward pressure. Remember the strength in GBP is the belief of rate hikes to quell the housing market - and the housing eco data is softening without a rate hike.

EUR/GBP - looks likely to make a recovery also pushing downward on GBP.

GBP/AUD @ 1.86 - AUD/USD bounce will likely be exhausted, Draghi will likely push QE on EZ, GBP/USD will have bottomed by then, all playing into technical reversal to 2.02 @ 38.2% Fib back to Aug 2002 High - from there AUD will have bottomed and GBP/AUD will weaken - flip where - wait and see PA?

Fundamentals + Technical Analysis = great trading, good luck all.


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