GBPAUD Long - 19 Jan 2017

Background:
- Bullish marobozu closing the gap at the 1.6 (round number) support region
- This looks similar with my current GBPJPY Long trade but at a lower confidence level as the set up doesn't have bullish divergence...

Entry:
- Set at 20pips above the signal candle high @ 1.645

SL:
- set at below 50% fib of the signal candle @ 1.62

PT:
- set at previous swing high @ 1.71 (PT1)
- However, PT point might change to 1.68 (PT1) as that area coincides with the 50MA resistance and daily horizontal resistnce

Notes:
- This set up is less favorable compare to my on-going GBPJPY Long - 18 Jan 2017 trade.
- Therefore i might change my mind to exclude myself in this trade to reduce my exposure to GBP .... but all depending on future price action.

Comment:

Updates - 20 Jan 2017:
- Yesterday session again closed a hammer pointing upwards.
- It seems like the price is heading north and my buy stop will soon be triggered.

Trade active:

Updates - 24 Jan 2017:
- Buy stop was triggered in yesterday session
- Ytd session closed a bullish marobozu continuing the recent bull sentiment after chilling of in late of last week.
- This trade seems bullish with 20MA resistance impending.
- Like the other active GBP trades, I will pay close attention to any bearish reaction off the MA resistance.

Trade active:

Updates - 25 Jan 2017:
- Yesterday price action seems to be convincingly bullish as it reversed from its initial bear momentum to close at the top of yesterday range. Yesterday candle resembles a bullish hammer/long tail doji pointing upwards.
- With recent bullish actions, I will surely hold on to the trade.
- However, since the 10/20MA resistance are in sight, I would keep a close attention to price action at that area.

Trade active:

Updates - 30 Jan 2017:
- Last day of the week closed a bearish candle following a shooting star after testing the 50MA resistance.
- With the upcoming GBP rate and policy release in Thursday, I might consider to exit this trade early to avoid the volatility.
- A 2nd bearish signal at this 50MA resistance would require me to exit in technical basis.
- As for now, I will hold on to this trade and see if a 2nd bearish signal does appear

Trade active:

Updates - 1 Feb 2017:
- Yesterday candle had tested my entry point again but close a bullish hammer.
- As per my other open GBP trade, the upcoming GBP rate/policy release would mess up this trade.
- I will keep an eye on the price action at the 50MA resistance before making any changes to my trade.

Trade active:

Updates - 2 Feb 2017:
- Yesterday session continued the hammer bullishness by closing higher, nearing last week high.
- Could this be sufficient to push through the GBP news release later today?
- ATM, i am 240pips in profit with potential 400pips to my PT
- Since a swing low has been formed, i will now moved my SL to 20pips below the hammer low @ 1.638

Trade closed: stop reached:

Updates - 3 Feb 2017:
- Lesson of the year!!! Exit trade before rate or policy announcement....
- Because of greed in chasing the potential profit, i was hoping the announcement to be in my favor thus didnt execute my exit rule.(This is same for all my GBP trades)
- For this, i paid the price.... my previous 240pips has now evaporated and i have exit my trade at loss of 70pips
- Yesterday candle closed a bearish engulfing after testing the 50MA resistance. This could be a chance to short? lets analyze it in another posting.