4xForecaster
Long

$GBP v $CAD - Wolfe Wave Completes; Model Eyes 2.08057 #BOE #BOC

FX:GBPCAD   British Pound/Canadian Dollar
1798 19 33
a year ago
Friends,


Feel free to peek at some of the pre-analytical work I engage in a daily basis, involving currencies , commodities , stocks and indices. The current $GBPCAD             comes from the "$GBP | Predictive Analysis & Forecasting" room (reference below), suggesting a continuation to the upside, with a Wolfe Wave pattern calling price along its dynamic 1-4 Line, whereas the Predictive/Forecasting Model defined a static target at 2.08057 on 07 OCT             2015:

snapshot

The following is a cut/past commentary offered in preparation to this publishing. Those familiar with the Wolfe Wave/Geo may have taken an early position (green square             ). However, this and an other analysis I post, share or offer comments are for educational purposes only:

==========================
07 OCT             2015 - $GBPCAD             - Daily chart:

Here is another $GBP cross, highlighting a potential decline to the support shown in the chart.

Note that the levels used for that support also approximate a significant 1.414-Fibonacci extension, with a range of 1.96332 to 1.95551 depth.

To the upside, I am expecting a reaction capped at a narrow 2.05219 to 2.05599 range.

snapshot



The background geometry is the Geo             with the application of the Geo's Off-Set Rule #2 as a rationale for the upper range target.


David Alcindor
19 OCT             2015 - Re: $GBPCAD:

Price peeled off of the 1-3 Line and consolidation pattern near Point-5; Now nears 2-4 Line following forecast:
snapshot


David Alcindor
19 OCT             2015 - $GBPCAD             break across 2-4 Line; 2.0857 forecast remains intact:
snapshot


David Alcindor
==========================
PS: Following is where to find the room for $GBP pairs:
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#bZqW5FlhT8pAHG3O

Follow me on TradingView.com (alias: 4xForecaster) for early insights on currencies , commodities , stocks and indices.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter: @4xForecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
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.
a year ago
Comment: 21 OCT 2015 - Price Update / Tech-Note:

It appears that price has resume an upward swing - Following is a speculative overlay of a primary-degree Elliott Wave count to emphasize the probable impulsive mechanism of ascent, as well as highlight significant R/S levels:

snapshot


David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: ADDENDUM - I have added in the chart the outer-most tolerable target per Predictive/Forecasting Model, defined at 2.08400:


snapshot



David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 22 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Here is the state of affairs as of this day:
snapshot



Note that price is retracing from the forecast R/S level:
snapshot



Looking at a probable support, I would consider the 3 following technical events:

1 - The termination point of a 2th wave at 2-lesser degree:
snapshot



2 - A Fibonacci retracement to 38.6 level, corresponding to the termination level of the first speculated motive wave (in grey), near 2.0085:
snapshot



3 - Seeking support along a minor R/S level:
snapshot



Although all of these are circumstantial and should not be construed as a deterministic rule, they do come together supportively, but can only add to the probability strength of that expected event.

Best,


David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 23 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price converted 2-4 Line from resistance to support per this upper-side validation ... Bullish:

snapshot


David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 07 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains above the 2-4 Line. Watch for potential R/S validation atop this geometric line:

snapshot


David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 12 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

It took a 61.8% contraction to recommence a rally. Expect a temporizing delay at the 2.033 level as price retests this interim obstacle.

Predictive/Forecasting Model remains intent on its outer-most Qual-Target at 2.08057, defined on October 07, 2015:

snapshot


David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 16 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price reached, now retracing from the expected 2.033 level ... Overall forecast remains bullish and intent on loftier levels, as defined in forecast:

snapshot


David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 24 DEC 2015 - Chart Update:

$GBPCAD hit target at 2.08057 from 1.977 ... Higher high expected defined in next analysis

snapshot


David Alcindor
a year ago
Comment: 24 DEC 2015 - New probable BULLISH target per Model ... Also approximating 1.618-Fib extension:

snapshot


David Alcindor
11 months ago
Comment: 22 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Watch for this high-probability geometric scenario, as a 5-prime position complete the Geo's cycle:
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
9 months ago
Comment: 14 APR 2016 - Notice:

$GBPCAD - Imminent reversal ... Hi-prob & new bullish targets coming soon ...


$GBP $CAD #BOE $BOC $USoil $UKOil #brent $WTI #crude #oil
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
nice! same with my cypher pattern. my tp is 2.07
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO tntsunrise
a year ago
Hello @tntsunrise - Glad to see you are using Darren Oglesbee's Cypher ... Brings back lots of good memories.

David
+2 Reply
mcpeacocks
a year ago
would coincide with an agressive entry to complete the cypher forming
Potential Cypher on GBPCAD Daily
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO mcpeacocks
a year ago
Hello @ mcpeacocks - Do you enter patterns at completion?

I will add the outermost target defined by the Model next.


David
+1 Reply
mcpeacocks 4xForecaster
a year ago
yes, I normally wait to enter until pattern is completed. better for my MM
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO mcpeacocks
a year ago
@mcpeacocks - Understood. I used to trade in a group in which Darren Oglesbee belonged ("MasterMind"). It was at that point that he had released to the public his Cypher. My specialty at the time was to defined tip-top and bottom-tip reversals, and trade all of Scott Carney's pattern off of Point-C.

This was a method I had called E.A.G.L.E. for (E)xtremely (AG)gressive (L)evel of (E)ntry. I had also written a long piece at the time explaining the difference between successful completion of a pattern and successful pattern, simply stating that while a pattern can successfully complete to its Point-D (or Point-C for Scott Carney's Shark, as a "quasi pattern" and pre-pattern to the 5-0 pattern), it may not always retrace to the first expected 38.6-Fib level.

In fact, I had demonstrated at the time that may of such patterns would complete, but would simply retrace a mere 0.214-Fib (i.e.: the complement of a minor 0.786-Fib level), and instead move on up to complete a Crab, Alternate Bat, Crab, Deep Crap or a deeper version of the Shark).

In another entry, I recommended pattern traders to come up with their own rate of success, as there are only a few sites that have posted these values, but no consistency ever existed. At the time I was doing this sort of research, the Gartley was the most frequent successful pattern to complete with the least success rate (i.e.: ensuing retracement to a minimum of 0.386-Fib), as it would often move on up to a Butterfly or some extended version of itself, taking out the outer most stop-losses. In contrast, the Bat was the pattern deemed to carry the highest success rate at about 80%.

Upon release of his Cypher, Darren suggested a similar rate of success in terms of completion, but I have come across several traders demonstrating a wide variation in terms of success rate in minimum Fib retracement to the 38.6 handle.

I personally do not trade patterns, although I did that for a while, but I was more interested in developing a system that would allow a very early, aggressive level of entry (at first, I came up with the EAGLE), whereas nowadays, I use a combination of my own proprietary Predictive/Forecasting Model combined with other proprietary methods (Patterns: Janus, Great White, Euclide, Geo, as well as other more occult geometric methods: Nodes, nodules and related cores), as I have remained obsessed about defying the saying that one cannot call tops or bottoms - The saying is popular, just as much as it is mythological, as I have accumulated two archives that prove the contrary (see my profile for reference).

In any case, I was interested as to your choice of entry, as it brought up a familiar topic I had addressed and taught about in the past. Still, Darren Oglesbee's Cypher is one pattern that can rival Scott Carney's Bat, but the consistency remains sustained in the Bat, based on my own experience and empirically gathered information over the years.

On a last note: Akil Stokes was also a member of that "MasterMind" group - He is perhaps the only trader I know and would recommend if you were ever interested to learn about pattern trading. He has a proven record, a daily presentation and solid mindset, all of these attributes can be found across the masses of traders, but a rare few possess these all within one self - @Akil_Stokes can be found and followed here:
- https://www.tradingview.com/u/Akil_Stokes/

Best,


David Alcindor
+6 Reply
mcpeacocks 4xForecaster
a year ago
Wow David, thanks for that long but interesting reply and read! i'm just a simple trader and try to hop on to trends, look for clear support and resistance and trade the occassional pattern as well (gartley and cypher mostly). Nonetheless, I havent done traded enough patterns yet that i have enought to really assess success rate. I did know about Akil and have watched several of his youtube videos already.
cheers
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO mcpeacocks
a year ago
@mcpeacocks - Great. Akil might have some information about success rate in patterns, now that he's done this for so many years - Have a great night.

David
+3 Reply
22 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Here is the state of affairs as of this day:
snapshot


Note that price is retracing from the forecast R/S level:
snapshot


Looking at a probable support, I would consider the 3 following technical events:

1 - The termination point of a 2th wave at 2-lesser degree:
snapshot


2 - A Fibonacci retracement to 38.6 level, corresponding to the termination level of the first speculated motive wave (in grey), near 2.0085:
snapshot


3 - Seeking support along a minor R/S level:
snapshot


Although all of these are circumstantial and should not be construed as a deterministic rule, they do come together supportively, but can only add to the probability strength of that expected event.

Best,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
I still get in the old habit to write updates in the discussion thread - I will try to cut/paste this discussion and make any further technical updates in the chronological thread, so as to keep any discussion/inquiries separate - David
+1 Reply
Darenth
a year ago
snapshot
Maybe we have a deeper down. : )
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Darenth
a year ago
Hello @Darenth ... Excellent pick-up on the Wolfe Wave.

However, I see a larger encompassing Geo. The Geo represents one of the occult market geometries I have discovered, and is a drastic departure from the Wolfe Wave ("WW"). Whereas Mr. Wolfe states in his introductory pave (www.WolfeWave.com) that there exists no connection in terms of wave count, Fibonacci or other technical data, I found that the Geo, which approaches the construction of the WW is a different beast.

First, it requires specific constructions within its 1-2, 2-3, and 3-4 Legs, and it takes into account the probability of attainment levels if and once price depart from a specific level, such as from Point-5 (which brings the highest probability of returning to the 1-4 Line = Off-Set Rule #1 = Wolfe Wave Rule), or from Point-5' (i.e.: 5-prime, which calls upon the application of Geo's Off-Set Rule #2, whereby price gains the highest probability of reversing and attaining the price level corresponding to Point-4 of the Geometry, hence lowering the probability that price would get to that WW's 1-4 Line due to a geometric compensation), or Point-5'' (i.e.: 5-second, which calls upon the application of Geo's Off-Set Rule #3, whereby price gains the highest probability of reversing and attaining the price level corresponding to Point-3 of the Geometry, hence lowering the probability that price would get to that WW's 1-4 Line or even level of prior Point-4, due to an even more drastic geometric compensation) - Following is the plot for the Geo, comparing to your Wolfe Wave:

snapshot


Notice how:
1 - Price overshot the Point-5 of the Geo:
snapshot


AND ...

2 - ... How this overshoot is stomped at the transposition of the 2-4 Line off of Point-3 (i.e.: geometry definition of 5');
snapshot


AND Finally ...

3 - ... How this defines Point-5' right (right at the level just discussed in the "Chart Update"):
snapshot



It is these discreet events (occult geometries) that are likely to define, allow or limit the expansion and contraction of price action, and thus offer a rating of probability which can become useful in trade managements.

As discussed earlier, the probability statement is a mere guideline, and will or cannot supersede common sense. It's here to express technical and geometric data sewn across the price field in seemingly uncorrelated, but in fact tightly in communication, with one another.

For instance, Elliott Wave calls for a drastic relaxation of price following several degrees of 5th wave completion, such that price will not just reverse to Wave-4 termination level of one lesser-degree, but may at times reverse back all the way to the termination level of Wave-2 of that same lesser degree. This level I posted in one of the point earlier today happens to coincide with the Geo's Off-Set Rule #2 application, where a geometric compensation occurs following the definition of 5', as illustrated above.

Best,


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
shasst1 4xForecaster
a year ago
I love your work man, great analysis!
Are you still bullish for this pair?
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO shasst1
a year ago
Thank you @shasst1.

Unless there is statement to the contrary, the targets remain intact and in force, leaving the forecast unchanged.

David
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David.....could we possibly get a decline before the rally to your targets?
snapshot
+1 Reply
ChetanFX iefan
a year ago
I think yes, there are high chances of decline before moving up..
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
a year ago
Yes, ChetanFX, @iefan - Also, I often imagine majors representing the ANVIL, and the base currency (here, the $USD of the major), representing the HAMMER - Not sure if this analogy works for you, but it really is the shape of the $USDCAD that will act as the MOLD from which to CAST all other subservient $CAD crosses.

Let's take a look at what's going on in the $USDCAD, just to illustrate what might (just might) be going on in the $GBPCAD:

First, here is a nascent Geo/WW (BLACK):
snapshot


However, if you take a few steps back, you might also recognize the encompassing of a larger nascent Geo (BLUE):
snapshot


Also, notice that the Predictive/Forecasting Model did call TWO targets, a first one just hit, and and second one floating above at 1.33352 - This is worth keeping n mind, since the method here is to let the Model define a target, then turn to the geometry to explain a probable mechanism of access to these sometimes distant targets.

Now, in relation to the $GBPCAD, there may be a "sense" that more consolidation might be going on. And this is likely that this would occur at this time, simply because the HAMMER is currently shaping up a lower low in the larger Geo.

Of course, this is all probability, but what else do we have, except looking back, before everything is done and said, right?

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
+5 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Excellent, thank you for this David. This correlation is fascinating. I should spend a bit more time on the majors and see how they influence the minor crosses. So much to do, so little time :)
+1 Reply
ewpnx1 PRO
11 months ago
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this market David.
Reply
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