Watch the GBPCAD for a long opportunity around 1.8250-8300

The British Pound has really underperformed for the past couple of weeks, partly due to the Bank of England's dovish stance after slashing its inflation forecasts in February. But part of the pound's recent weakness is most likely due to the upcoming general elections in the UK (7 May). I tend to think that all those speculative shorts will end up leading to the GBP bouncing back this spring. This seems possible for the GBPCAD if it holds 1.8250-8300 for the rest of the month, at which point a reversal could occur around election time. There's an old bearish trend line that might come in as support somewhere around this price level, and I will be looking for a reversal in this area to trade the long-term bullish GBP trend (I have a hard time believing that the CAD will keep rallying over the medium/long term). Look for a new swing low in the upcoming weeks to re-establish bullish trading strategies.