GBPJPY intra day sell opportunity

FX:GBPJPY   British Pound / Japanese Yen
263 2 3
I responded to another GBPJPY             trade set-up last week which brought this pair to my attention. I believe that this pair is almost ready for another leg lower.
Today might be slow due to the US banking holiday but that might be just what this pair needs to settle and complete its correction/consolidation.

We have a monthly 38.2 Fibonacci level tested during this consolidation which was also a previous daily low. This level is clearly a level where traders are managing their positions. I like to sell the break lower for a sell and if it decides to move higher we might see a buy opportunity later on, although I prefer a new low first.

This new low should generate divergence for a possible bigger reversal and buy opportunity. But first things first which will be the possible sell trade for me.



Related Ideas

'Scenario 2: this short term sideways price action at 166.5 is only a smaller consolidation followed by a break lower towards my target.'
As I mentioned I had my short position open with stop loss at break-even.

This trade reached my target for a 3.4/1 R/R. Nevertheless the biggest trade we don't want to miss has yet to come. I will update this pair later on.

We saw a clear 3 wave correction yesterday before the break lower. I like the previous low taken out for minimum target 165.8.
However price is moving sideways and 166.50 seems to be a strong level. I will closely watch this trade and update tomorrow after some more price action since there are three possible scenario's at the moment and I need to determine which one is the correct one before entering a new trade.

Scenario 1: double bottom and reversal; wait for the break and consolidation for a buy
Scenario 2: this short term sideways price action at 166.5 is only a smaller consolidation followed by a break lower towards my target.
Scenario 3: a more complex correction is underway where A-B-C is only the start in the shape of a larger degree wave A with wave B for the double bottom at 166.5 and wave C next.

I keep my short with stop at break-even for now.


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