possible downtrend continuation

FX:GBPJPY   British Pound / Japanese Yen
344 15 1
trendline break and retest
itaskar itaskar
waiting for bearish candle pattern
itaskar itaskar
failed, waiting neckline retest 168.50-80
The UK economic data to be released in half an hour should give the sterling some impulse either way. If it fails, the NFP will certainly do. Anyway, I know, it would be going against the grain of your study, but the pound got pounded enough recently, so I expect some strengthening of the royal currency.
itaskar ForceFollower
yep may, it's definitely back in trend, watching resistance 168.50-70 for short.
itaskar ForceFollower
in my opinion the weekly double bottom neckline will be tested harder, thats why i think that the daily trendline will not hold as long, jpy is weekening from mid 2012, so it can be time for jpy. i think that audjpy is confirming this scenario, maybe other jpy pairs as well, didnt check it yet. I think there will be further down next week, even there is pretty weekly hammer.
The yen itself, according to my analysis:
1) it is still a strong currency, as strong as the NZD,
2) it has weakened somewhat recently,
3) it keeps weakening,
4) it is oversold.

Overall: a mixed picture, but:
a) I would not bet on the yen's strength, until it shows some strength,
b) I would not bet on the yen's weakness, until it is one of the weakest currencies among the majors.

But if I had to decide very soon, I would sooner bet on the yen's strength than on its weakness, which means: going short some yen pairs (esp. CAD/JPY or EUR/JPY). Until then - I'd wait for the yen to show some more strength.
itaskar ForceFollower
thx for your opinion, is there any reason for you to prefer cadjpy eurjpy?
Certainly. :-) Currently the weakest ccies are: CAD, USD and EUR. So, if I were to bet on the JPY's strength, I'd do it against the weakest ccies.
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