abala.dabala
Short

GBPJPY Weekly - Great downside potential

FX:GBPJPY   British Pound/Japanese Yen
215 6 4
Due to the global turmoil GBPJPY             broke the 4Y bull (blue) trendline . Also broke below the 2013             red trendline , pushed lower to the 2014 low and backtested the cross of the two bull trendlines . The brake and the backtest seem to be very orderly.

If risk-aversion aimplifies then GBPJPY             is very likely to break below the key support level @ 163.70.
ow yeach, great downside coming I agree
Reply
abala.dabala Piet.Hein
There are risks in this setup: 1) A lot of patience needed 2) Risk-avesion has to build further 3) Have to expect the BoJ not letting USD/JPY depreciating much further and so indirectly GBP/JPY. Thoug, if it plays out, it plays out nicely. Good luck!
Reply
Piet.Hein abala.dabala
thanks mate, yes, I see all these risks too :) Actually Im not so sure that BoJ will not let USDJPY depreciating much. But technically looks good.
Reply
abala.dabala Piet.Hein
I think, that the BoJ desperately wants to see JPY depreciating further. But the real question is what the market wants. We saw how the negative deposit rates did not have the wished effect on USDJPY :) If risk-aversion really kicks in then there is not much the BoJ can do on the short-run.
Reply
Piet.Hein abala.dabala
yes totally agree with you, lets see what markets want because BoJ do want it to depreciate and 115 for me is the limit, I see it beeing on 115 - 125 range
Reply
Piet.Hein Piet.Hein
it I mean USDJPY
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