4xForecaster

$GBP vs $JPY: Interim Retrace; Loftier Target | #BOE #BOJ #forex

FX:GBPJPY   British Pound/Japanese Yen
570 21 10
Price reached a significant Wolfe Wave landmark, namely its "Take-Profit" area, along its 1-4 Line - See chart below:

snapshot


The Predictive/Forecasting model posted a quant-target today, and maintains two older qual-targets from last February, namely:

1 - TG-1 = 181.191 - 22 APR 2015: High-Prob. Hit, Low-Prob Reversal

2 - TG-Hi = 185.707 - 19 FEB 2015: Low-Prob. Hit; High-Prob. Reversal

and

3 - TG-Hix = 187.590 - 19 FEB 2015: Very Low-Prob. Hit; Very High-Prob. Reversal

Based on the quantitative nature of the first target, a less-than-reversal event should occur if and once the 181.191 level gets hit. This "less-than-reversal" implies that a mere retracement might take place, in the Fibonacci order of 0.382 to 0.618, but very rarely deeper than this - Relative to the background geometry, this might correlate with a validation at the upper-side of its 2-4 Line.

If you look at the current RSI residence, this level was last visited in the early part of December 2014, hence I would add this factor as an added qualitative data in support of at least a retracement.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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David Alcindor
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
22 APR 2015 - Update:

Just posted in Twitter & LinkedIn:
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$GBPJPY reached tech. target. Predictive Model targets remain aloft; Expect consol.:

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$GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ #forex
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
NOTE: This recent posting on Twitter and Linked-In does not reflect the more proximal target that was jut produced and shared - David
+1 Reply
MoniqueNiehaus 4xForecaster
2 years ago
22 APR 2015 - $GBPJPY Speculating....:)

snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO MoniqueNiehaus
2 years ago
Yes, @MoniqueNiehaus - ... Sorry I did not see your posting here. Had to do a bit of a security maintenance on my system, so out for a few days from charting ...

The tunneling is definitely there to facilitate a 1-4 Line passage. Look for counter-directional structure to estimate a probable level of attainment whenever price reverses back up from a down-swing ... Typically, when price reverses back UP, you can safely aim for the FIRST DOWN-ward inflection from the down-swing from which price reverses.

In your chart, 181.500 is that FIRST downward inflection of the downswing, and this vicinity is a fair goal as far as combining both structural analysis and counter-trend strategies go.


David
+1 Reply
iefan PRO
2 years ago
Hi David. Is this smaller internal WW geo correct?
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Hello @iefan - I would define two degrees of trading risks here:

1 - First, the one which you posted, which would represent a more aggressive tendency

and

2 - A more proximal 1-4 Line using a DOWN-ward inflection of a Geo Anchor within the span of the 2-3 Leg, which appears to reside at the 179.250 level. Upon entry at point-5, a 80/20 strategy could be implemented, wherein 80% of your position is exited at the more conservative target, whereas 20% would be exited at the most aggressive target.

Just an idea.


David
+2 Reply
27 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$GBPJPY hit its 22 APR target at 181.191; Expecting consolidation; Bullish targets lurk above:

snapshot


$GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ
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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Interesting take David, I'm short from this level after spotting an ending diagonal after completion of an extended fifth impulse up from 5'.
Probably a retracement in this light.
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
snapshot
Reply
jonatsgonats
2 years ago
blown away... where to next?
Reply
07 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$GBPJPY hit 185.707 target; Loftier, lesser probability target remains open to bulls:

snapshot


$GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
07 MAY 2015

$GBPJPY

Hi David. Do you think this is probable before an attempt at TG-Hix?
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Hello @iefan - Yes, the inflection in the down swing is likely to offer a temporary support. The overall geometry developing at the moment may also complete at a KoD.

TG-1, which is a numerical/quantitative target, is the level that the Model defines as a future pivot point. As this target has been hit, and has continued to act as a pivot level, then look at the possibility that once TG-Hix is hit, it will also let price fall to the next lower band, as defined in the following chart:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
NOTE: There is a possibility that Point-2 in the middle of the field and Point-5' as the recent nadir might both represent the first side of a larger developing geometry, with the recent high acting as Point-3, and the recent validation of TG-1 acting as a Geo Anchor.

This is a very premature construction to conceptualize, but one whose 1-4 Line would also support the Predictive/Forecasting Model defining the lowest RED range I defined in the chart.


David
+1 Reply
Yahia.Awes
2 years ago
Yen about to bottom I think, it's making his last push down before it is going to rally. Soon I'm bearish on all yen pairs because of the FXY.
snapshot
+1 Reply
12 MAY 2015 - Update: Hit all 3 targets:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$GBPJPY hit all 3 bullish targets; Expecting bearish resistance at this level:

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$GBP $JPY $USD #BOE #BOJ #forex
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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
GBPUSD might be a nice short tomorrow, same as all GBP pairs in my opinion.
Excellent forecast David.
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
snapshot


Reached target ahead of time, bearish signal per my method.
3 more 4h bars left in my uptrend signal.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
@IvanLabrie - Are you here to advertize or tout about your signal/method, or are you willing to contribute. I really don't care about other people signals, especially if the posting don't advance other traders' positions.

Feel free to post the geometries that I am trying to concentrate on, and please resist the personal methods, except on your own site - I'd be more than happy to coment on your posts in threads where I am asked to contribute, but I am really trying to keep this a market-geo with well spelled out rules that are clear, visible and easy to assimilate for anyone.

If it's not benefiting the groups but oneself, it really has little value to anyone.

If you have some proprietary method you'd like to brag about, just as I have my Predictive/Forecasting Model which took me many years to refine and for which I am able to offer clearly defined targets and post regular "Target hit" results, then I encourage you to spend a little bit of time to post results either privately or publicly, but on a site that registers all of your data (I do so using Bitly.com, where pairs, methods, performances are recorded ... See heere: bit.ly/16JMnH8. Otherwise, this is all an exercise in futility.

I recommend that you find a corollary to your method, if it is something that is of proprietary nature that cannot be shared. For instance, I cannot share my method, but I have spent a great deal of time looking for, refine and now apply a geometry-based overlay for anyone to follow based on simple entries, exits and stop-losses (the Geo has been the best, most objective tool I was able to refine and bright to light and share freely with this community). This allows me to encourage other traders to not only discover, but also learn about advanced market geometries by defining for them a rule-base method that anyone can assimilate (the Geo has two lines at its core, one point of entry, one target, one stop-loss, and that's all there is to this geometry, in contrast to wide variabilities in other basic patterns), as the geometry corollary appears to work well with the Predictive/Forecasting Model.

So, feel free to post charts that highlight the geos that have been posted here and other threads for months, and please refrain from highlighting or referring to some self-touting method. I thought you were new to trading, at least that is how you presented yourself, so please understand my being dubious. I already have to trash a full email account. I do not want to have to clean this or other thread, whose sole purpose is to advance others. I have nothing to sell, no site to link to, and no fees to impose. Just pure learning, sharing and communicating in the freest, altruistic environment - Some other traders have to sell their stuff to stay afloat, and I feel for them, as this field is saturated with mediocre methods that work well for the demonstrator, but rarely for the purchaser. In contrast, I make money trading and live by serving remote rural under-served communities in the US.

My motivation is at another level, but I do need to keep things clean and clear.

David
+5 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Just sharing my view. I see that you have an ego problem, so I'll refrain from commenting in your charts anymore.
I have nothing to sell, I trade my own account and I've learned the methods I use from Tim West. You or anyone else can browse through my charts, if you find my post dubious.
It's the second time that you respond in this manner, and it's not my cup of tea for an enriching discussion. Farewell.
-1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
@IvanLabrie - Thank you, Ivan.

David
+4 Reply
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