dojitrader
Short

Loose fitting Cypher . . .

FX:GBPJPY   British Pound/Japanese Yen
473 9 0
This Cypher pattern fits my rules a little like adult size bib overalls fit a kid.
It covers the body but slops around a lot. BUT, I see no 5 waves down
to count for an a-b-c- correction into support/resistance is just not there for a basic retracement
sell into a possible trend continuation to the downside. Therefor, these bib
overalls might be a better fit than at first glance.
The stops must go above 174.83, which is much to much for my head to handle
so I'll be looking for the candlesticks to provide an entry and lower risk around
the .786-.886 area.
Ozayevable
3 years ago
I am very skeptical towards the validity of any cypher pattern. The "founders" claim it has 80-90% success rate. The thing is they dont trade ONLY cypher, but other patterns as well, which sounds pretty dumb when you think about it. So i tend to ignore that particular pattern when i see it.
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dojitrader
3 years ago
As I recall the "founders" claim is based on long term testing which means the pattern has times of several loses
in a row and then many wins. It's just not hit 8 out of 10 every time ticked off like clock work. You might get 10 misses/1 win but then you get 20 profits/4 losses. And so on and so on . . . to my experience, trading this, or any pattern that has an edge,
over time, in a consistent and disciplined manner creates more profit than loss.
Plus, I don't see why it would be - dumb - to ignore the possibility of other profitable patterns on other instruments
and different time frames. To do so would be like selling a product to only 1 customer because he buys 80%
of the time and then ignoring the customers who only buy 60% or 40% of the time. You're saving lost time
but, you also lose the profits.
ps There are some traders who only trade 1 pattern there entire day, every day, never trading anything else
and are very good at such an application.
I prefer using every edge that may apply at the time of the trade.
Wishing you many profits in 2014 ~~ !!
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tntsunrise TOP dojitrader
3 years ago
yes this is cypher pattern but i will rather entry at 1.27 ext of CB , 0.786 in this case the RISK is a bit higher. GOOD LUCK trader!
Reply
dojitrader
3 years ago
Yes, the inverse fib of b to c would put the entry up around the .886 and much more desirable risk
and can be a very good spot to shoot for with the short entry. Once and a while it comes up short.
As I stated I'll be looking for the candlesticks to help me enter and determine risk.
Luck to you Too !!!
Reply
dojitrader
3 years ago
Oh dear ! Wouldn't you know !
The way markets are burning through support and blasting through
resistance I did not place a limit order, hoping I could be there to see the
candlestick pattern for entry and stops. I need to figure out how to trade
24 hr markets without rest ! Invariably the best entries happen when
I'm away. Hoping I get another chance to enter == perhaps the candles
will help me. Lots of pips to you if you're in the trade !!!!!
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tntsunrise TOP dojitrader
3 years ago
I think if you entered at 137.50 now you have 150+ pips win
Reply
dojitrader tntsunrise
3 years ago
I'll bet you meant 173.50 instead of 137.50 ?
Anyway, drilling down to the hourly chart it looks like a test
of resistance is setting up at 172.70. May be my opportunity
to enter short --- IF the candles shine a little light on the
price action.
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tntsunrise TOP dojitrader
3 years ago
yes you are right. 173.50
Reply
dojitrader
3 years ago
Revisiting my trades for the month and this one would have made
for a pretty good month, BUT, I was so shell shocked from so many
trades blasting through entries/support/resistance that I did not place
a limit order.It hit entry at a time when I;m normally not actively watching
and then ran for 550 pips or so. Don't think I would have gotten them
all or even a large portion,
However,
the moral of the trade is, as it always is, you can not and should not
change the variables or your system/methodology simply because a few
trades did not work out the way you wanted. Changing your rules
because of short term results will always ---
ALWAYS hurt you in the long run.
Science will tell you that the more variables you have the more
outcomes are possible. Or, in baseball, if the strike zone keeps
moving around the pitcher will rarely hit it soundly.
One of these days I hope to finally learn ~~~~~
As my "Motto" says ---- Harmonics are easy,
Psychology is Hard !

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