GBPJPY - Channel being stressed - Longs Possible

FX:GBPJPY   British Pound / Japanese Yen
904 38 13
Greetings Fellow Traders,

Trade opportunities are always popping up left and right! Today we're going to look at a critical level for the GBPJPY             pair. We had an excellent trade off of 169.00 and an excellent trade near 165.00...and now we find the market on the resistance level pushing price down....

Sells will dominate as long as this line holds, however should we get a 4 hour close above, look for some consolidation or a retest back to the level that was broken and quite possibly an outstanding entry to a trade back into the 170s.

Let's make some pips!

Comment/Like/Follow - If you ever need assistance with trading or anything else, feel free to PM me as well.
Comment: Updated Analysis for new trade entries
looking at your chart, it seems 170 is a resistance level as 15/1,25/1 and 26/1have reversed downtrend upon hitting this level.
i missed the 2nd entry at 167 and wonder should I wait for it to fall back to this level again or take a smaller position at around 168-169 to ride the trend.
the precise buy, profit and stop loss entry is what I want to learn as previous experiences had been less encouraging.
many thanks
+1 Reply
Synapse dchua1969
Thanks for the comment dchua1969, 170 does seem to have provided momentary stops for current price action. At this level of trading I do not have any recommendations for entering a buying opportunity, the best chance would have been in the 167s or at the very latest after that 4 hour candle closed near 167.80. I intentionally am not providing exact entries, what I am providing is the market structure and the intended direction should that structure collapse. I leave it up to the individual here as to how they trade that opportunity. I manage funds if you want me to trade for you. That being said, if you really want to get in on this move, the best chance for that right now will be looking for a pullback to near the 168 level now based on the redefined strength....however there are no guarantees that price WILL go back there. Personally there are opportunities arising on other pairs while this one is already being played out.
Synapse Synapse
Just whatever you do, don't think about this particular trade as a FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) there are new opportunities almost daily on every pair. There is no need to always be in a trade.
Synapse dchua1969
Updated Analysis for new trade entries
I see you have outlined the possibility of a pullback before the rally you are looking for. My idea for a bearish bat pattern (short-term) I posted yesterday supports this pullback. Let me know what you think.

+1 Reply
Synapse olly_price
It's possible however I don't think it will happen in quite the way you have pictured here. The harmonic Bat Pattern relies on a Fibonacci retracement of 88.6% which you have outlined...however the market has already negated this bat pattern by posting a higher high. From my personal trading the bullish breakout strength is still intact and any pullback (even severely aggressive ones) I expect to be limited to the channel resistance that was broken. Your targets for the bat pattern would put us well inside the channel again, which shouldn't happen at this point in time. Ideally any pullback/retracement from here will end around 167.80-168.00.
+1 Reply
olly_price Synapse
Nice, thanks for the insight. Would you suggest to me that when analysing the hourly chart I also consult a higher time frame to see if there is any longer-term pictures that would either support or not support my idea?
+1 Reply
Synapse olly_price
I think you should always be looking at multiple time frames when considering trade opportunities. What is happening on the 5 minute time frame is very different than what is happening on the 1 hour time frame which is very different than what is happening on the daily/weekly. See the forest for the trees so to speak. If you can understand what the market is doing in general, you also better understand the risk calculation for any 'counter' trend moves.
can I come back to 166 from 169 ?
+1 Reply
shahrose.ayankhan shahrose.ayankhan
+1 Reply
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