4xForecaster
Short

EAGLE Strat: Short Opp | $GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ #forex

FX:GBPJPY   British Pound/Japanese Yen
TRADE OPP:
- Short Opp             as per chart


TRADE PROFILE:

1 - Entry @ 19.275 (pending)

2 - SL @ 179.385

3 - PT @ 175.908

-- RR = 30.61:1


APPLIED STRAT.:
E.A.G.L.E.
=(E)xtremely (AG)gressive (L)evel of (E)ntry


BACKGROUND PATTERN
Scott Carney's Bullish Shark


ALTERNATIVE:
Entry @178.893 (back-up/conservative)


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter:
@4xForecaster
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agree
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+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO baraq.adnan
Hello @baraq.adnan - Although I do not possess any solid evidence-based data, I can only say that by empirical experience, most of the Bats will rest back towards their original Point-B level, especially if a historical level call the eyes back to that level, a concept I have named "transmural", wherein a prior relative structural-low is printed int he historical price action, and an intermediate geometry interferes temporarily (as in this Bat) until price is given the chance to revisit that area by virtue of that intermediate pattern completion.

The resulting price action that I thus anticipate is a price resumption of a level that preceded the pattern, as if price would use the pattern as a mirror on a wall, hence the "transmural" concept.

Here is just posted on Twitter a visual explanation:

From Twitter:
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$GBPJPY - Watch for these adverse excursion levels per Predictive Model:

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@tradingview $GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ #forex
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David Alcindor
--------------------


David
Reply
Akil_Stokes PRO 4xForecaster
Hey David, long time no speak buddy. Just read your comment above and I've noticed the same with Bat patterns as well. gain, No official testing data for it, but based off the eye test from many, many trades. Hope all id well from you. Now that I'm using this platform now I've got to make sure to check out what you're sharing.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Akil_Stokes
Hey @Akil_Stokes - How are you bro?

Doing well. Charting away to keep brain busy while at work. Still at it with non-price counter-trend strats and occult market geos.

Please, feel free to post a link here to your or Jason's site, or your live pattern trading course - These are the only course I would endorse and refer Junior traders to, truly.

Thank you for following, much appreciating.

Keep in touch - Let me know if you swing by Colorado ... The trader's expo idea is still on.


David

Reply
Akil_Stokes PRO 4xForecaster
Thanks, and yes whenever you get it set up I'm down to come out. I honestly do want to get out to Colorado again and show the family the sites. I'll certainly let you know when we plan it to make sure that you're around.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Akil_Stokes
Excellent - There are a few pro traders (STIR, DEVO, MCAlvany and private prop ... commodities, mainly) in the area I would like to round up in a private meet. I will be sure to contact you and Jason once that happens.

David
Reply
Nice DOC!!! I took a Bearish H1 CYPHER!! :-)
+1 Reply
Hello @Bubboo - Be careful ... Remember the Shark liking its little Cypher bites - David
Reply
27 JAN 2015 - TECH-NOTE:

For those interested in pattern analysis, following is an explanation of the rationale behind determining a direction, a probability of reversal, and the structural and geometric applications defining the trade levels (Limit, SL, TP):
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
H1 delivers a WW at 5-prime:

snapshot



As for the lonter TF pattern, here is another potential WW - Here, just released on Twitter:

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$GBPJPY: Intermediate target aims for WW's Pt-5; Longer TF eyes 171.59:

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@tradingview $GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ #forex
----------


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David Alcindor
--------------------


Regarding the definition of Limit, SL and TP, I simply applied a Bearish Bat/Shark projection within the recent price action. What you will end up with is a tight potential entry relative to stop-loss, the latter being defined above the0.886-Fibonacci level, thus coming a pinch lower than Point-X, or recent swing high.

This is a SPECULATIVE play, and not a trading advice. The strats that I use are prop, but shared for educational purpose only. There is a possibility of loss, but one that is shared with the public as it offers a minimal M15 frame-based risk, which should be tolerable to any Junior trader out there, right?

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Thanks David! Great :)
+1 Reply
27 JAN 2015 - Update:

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$GBPJPY mulls this bearish geometry; Still, remains NET Bearish:

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via www.tradingview | $GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ #forex
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
28 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$GBPJPY turned on cue as forecast; Now carving lower lows ... Abysmal target intact:

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@tradingview $GBP $JPY #forex
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Following is a frame-by-frame I posted on the Forex chat room:

=========================
GBPJPY-H1:About to close the candle at BACA: - (B)reak-(A)cross and - (C)lose-(A)crossThis is a safe and first step for directional commitment across a given line ... Here, the underbelly of the background geometry.David Alcindor
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... Now, look for a push to the UNDER-belly of the background geometry for a NEXT confirmatory event ...
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.. Red arrow is the "tolerable" structural level to seek ... Price can always surpass this level, but is likely to close there. If it crosses ABOVE the recent structural high (here, that would be the lower-high at 179.356, the give up the strat.
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... Now, here is the under-belly validation we were looking for. Caveat is that this is a 1-hr candle, and the condition is met so early in its formation that now price has only two things to do: Lower low and move in the forecast direction, or moves against price.Consider 179.356 as a fair directional commitment confirmation, BUT 178.821 an early intention to break that "sand in the line".
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David Alcindor
=========================
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
As price continues to evolve, it is now mulling the next commitment level, which is one that may impact the thrust of price action the most IF and only IF price decides to move int eh forecast downward direction ...

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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
If price is not able to commit below 179.356, then a larger geometry is at play.
+1 Reply
shenkw85 4xForecaster
Do you think the bigger guys out there is trying to breached the 180 level?
+1 Reply
Hello @shenkw85 - My predictive model looks at what the "bigger" guy aims for. Right now, the model points down, and there is little to support otherwise, as far as the model tells.

David
+1 Reply
shenkw85 4xForecaster
Thanks David, really enjoyed your EAGLE trade. Best of luck for today FOMC :)
+1 Reply
28 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
-----------
$GBPJPY ... Second validation at geometry's underbelly ... Bulls are pushing:

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@tradingview $GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ
---------


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Jia RongOh 4xForecaster
Maintain sell?
Reply
28 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$GBPJPY... Frame-by-frame ... Moving on to the next trench: 179.356. Pending breech:

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@tradingview $GBP $JPY #forex
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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
Dear David, Great model by you following the route you mentioned same as AUDCHF done last week. I think next breach you are mentioning is 178.356.
kmk.msp
+1 Reply
Xerion 4xForecaster
Thanks 4x - love your posts - I'm actually in this trade. Just to be clear - and I don't want to sound like a pedant, it's more for clarity - do you mean 178.356? I know platforms differ but the lowest price I have on the blue line you have drawn is 178.60 which seems like quite a large disparity. Just an observation more than anything.
+1 Reply
Hello @xerion888 - I just announced the typo on twitter. Yes, it should have read 178 ... Thank you!

David
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
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+1 Reply
28 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$GBPJPY marching in lower-lows against large geometric background:

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@tradingview $GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ #forex
----------


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
28 JAN 2015 - Update:

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$GBPJPY - Daily Chart: The "Big Picture" ... TG-Lo = 171591 ... Larger RR:

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@tradingview $GBP $JPY $USD #BOE #BOJ
----------


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
29 JAN 2015 - Update:

TRADE NOTE:

Beware of this potential adverse excursion towards a triple-top = KoD.

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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
FYI: ... I am referring to this KoD:

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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
30 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$GBPJPY continues to carve lower lows, nearing profit target per forecast:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/DBxKj7Iw/h

@tradingview $GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ #forex
----------


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
thank you david for nice analysis
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
@manijeh.kazemi.33 - You are very welcome - David
+1 Reply
30 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$GBPJPY hit TG; Now eyeing geo completion at 5 for 30.61:1 RR. Not 2 bad.

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@tradingview $GBP $JPY #BOJ #BOE #forex
----------


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David Alcindor
+4 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
'Not 2 bad' ha ha, understatement of the year! So if I was to hazard a guess after point 5 its back up to test the 2 - 4 line?
Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
HI David. Great Model. Have got 275++ pips. Now looking and planing your NZYJPY model for green pips agains. Great
kmk,msp
+2 Reply
iefan PRO kmk.msp
Don't forget CADJPY!
+1 Reply
Hello @iefan - It's on the back=burner. I will post something on it soon to make senses of the directional options. Still, its decline looks limited.

David
+1 Reply
@kmk.msp - Very nice. Thank you for following.

I have already entered LONG at 0.84840 as soon as it hit the target-low. More on this coming up.

David
+2 Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
waiting anxiously for update
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
84.840, that is - David
+1 Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
exactly
Reply
Pip_Alchemist PRO 4xForecaster
You are truly a gifted man! Well done and thank you!
+2 Reply
30 JAN 2015 - Update: ... The LARGER View ... :

From Twitter:
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$GBPJPY nears completion; Larger TF eyes further bearish targets at 174 and 171:

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@tradingview $GBP $JPY $BOE $BOJ
----------


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David Alcindor

============================

Traders,

I would be careful here, as price is likely to incur a reactive rally from the vicinity of Point-5, up to a minimal of a level corresponding to Point-4. In fact, I would seek a 1-4 Line projection as a probable TP Line.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Following is an illustration of a possible price action IF and once price completes the geometry at/near Point-5:

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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
30 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$GBPJPY mulls 175.908 tg w/ low-prob advrs excrsn risk to 177.482:

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@tradingview $GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ $USD #forex
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
AlexChoi 4xForecaster
I'm going to assume that point 5 means the upcoming 175.70 support. You mentioned a " low-prob advrs excrsn risk to 177.482". If the price does continue to push past 177.20/00 and on to 177.482, what are the odds that it might push higher beyond 177.482? I'm personally leaning towards encountering strong resistance around 177.20/00 and going down to test 175.70 since it's tested that area twice before and it's so close. It'd be a shame if I were to lose profits on my short because I didn't TP at the 176.20 support
+1 Reply
Hello @ AlexChoi - The 177.482 level should represent the outer-most adverse excursion. A BACA at that level should prompt a cautionary exit. What we are likely to see develop is a final push downward, which would complete the trade.

There are no bad profits to take, except the ones that one does not plan for. Your stop-loss should be measured to the level of your risk tolerance, but a structure-based, dynamic approach that defines a constantly forward moving SL is not a bad strategy either.

For those traders that have not quite grasped forecasting but have a sense of the direction, I recomment setting a TP forward at 1.414 and a SL backward at 1.272-Fibonacci, starting with a SL at above 1.618 from entry if this represents a range that falls within the tolerable loss potential.

David
+1 Reply
AlexChoi 4xForecaster
Wait, sorry-some of your fib numbers are confusing me. The price is currently at 177.370. Should I set my SL at 177.482? What would be a more concrete number to leave? Also, could you tell me what BACA stands for? I've tried looking it up, but couldn't find anything.
+1 Reply
Hello @AlexChoi - I do not offer any advice on where the trader's SL should go, as it all depends on your predefined risk management, all of which relies on what your levelrage is, account size, risk tolerance, ... etc. In the most generic way, traders might seek to place stop-losses at prior structural levels, but this too might represent too wide a level as to compromise the rule-based risk management every trader should observe prior to any trade they take.

BACA stands for Breaking-Across and Closing-Across, which relates to price committing to move given a defined level.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
02 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$GBPJPY neared target, ... retreated: 176.975 = Line in the sand:

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@tradingview $GBP $JPY $BOE #BOJ #forex $USD
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
That was rather intense! Nice one David.
+1 Reply
It'll come back to test it. Bulls will be bulls.

David
+1 Reply
thedon80 4xForecaster
Do you expect it to drop to target now David?
+1 Reply
@thedon80 - The model can define a lot of parameters, but timing is one it successfully fails consistently ... As built, the predictive/forecasting model assumes that time does not exist - There is only space and a pre-defined patterned process to get there.

Much like our galaxy, it's space all around and time matters only on earth. Everything else is just one big moment in which things move about based on very well definable rules.

David

+1 Reply
02 FEB 2015 - Update: ... And Done.

From Twitter:
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$GBPJPY hit target; RR=30:1; Geo backgrnd eyes WW; Further bear target next:

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@tradingview $GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ $USD
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Pip_Alchemist PRO 4xForecaster
I Salute you!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Pip_Alchemist
Thank you.
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Thank you David, another extraordinary piece of forecasting!
+1 Reply
02 FEB 2015 - Update: ... The BIGGER Picture:

From Twitter:
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$GBPJPY ... Next: Look for possible reaction interim; BearishTG @ 171.591;

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@tradingview $GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ #forex
----------


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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
03 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$GBPJPY reverses from target as per forecast: Look for Pt-4 level minimum:

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@tradingview $GBP $JPY $BOE #BOJ #forex
----------


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David Alcindor

========================

Tech-Note:

Here is the wider view of the chart, posted 3 days ago (30 JAN 2015), calling for a probable reversal at target with a reaction to the upside ... Price is following forecast arrows for now:

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A larger rallying could also take place, although less probable, on the basis of a 5-0 Pattern completion. Bearish targets remain most probable once the current relief rally consumes itself and returns back into the dominant bearish trend:

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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Tech-Note:

Note also that one of the tendency of the WW, as it completes a Point-5 is to rally at a minimum of a level corresponding to Point-4 (high-probability). Of a lesser probability is the reversal from Point-5-prime, whereby a rally to the level corresponding to Point-4 is very probable, but of lesser strength than if it occurred from Point-5. A much lesser probability is a reversal from Poit-5-second, which in this case, the target offered by the level of Point-4 becomes that of Point-3 (High probability).

The rule remains that from Point-5, a reversing price should seek a TP target at the 1-4 Line - Remember that this becomes less probable if Point-4 does not reside between the values of Point-1 and Point-2 ... In such alternate geometry, then refer to the recent AWW pattern discussed.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
03 FEB 2-15 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$GBPJPY reversed, still moving per forecast; Watch for 2-4 Line:

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@tradingview $GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ $USD #forex
----------


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
03 FEB 2015 - Update ... Cont'd ...:

From Twitter:
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$GBPJPY ... Yet, maintains real possibility of rising to 182.592 from WW's Point-5 to:

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@tradingview $GBP $JPY
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
03 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$GBPJPY: Hitting it both way: Reversing back to Point-4 level as forecast:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ #forex
----------


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
thedon80 4xForecaster
Morning David, thanks for analysis. I managed to get down leg to 175.908 and also some pullback which is great. Is it worth building in shorts now for big move down or wait to 179.275. thanks
+1 Reply
04 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$GBPJPY target hit dead-on; 2-4 Line might dictate directional fate:

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@tradingview $GBP $JPY $USD #BOE #BOJ #forex
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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
ImOnforum 4xForecaster
Awesome. What's next? retrace?
Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Great hit David! Thank you.
Reply
mkdeep04 4xForecaster
g8t play
Reply
Awesome trade I rode the wave down and back up again!!! 600+ Wow!! Awesome call. I was a bit skeptical on entry but once it rolled over for T1 I just kept my position open till 175's and then log at the bottom!!
+1 Reply
@bulldrvr - Excellent.

Thank you for following.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Well done my friend, ridiculous risk reward trade.

And thank you for introducing me to Connie Brown.
+1 Reply
@luke1827 - Great. Glad you like the author ... Watch for that rabbit hole. It's a slippery slope down there.

David
+1 Reply
luke1827 PRO 4xForecaster
I'll take the red pill
+1 Reply
thedon80 4xForecaster
David you expecting down from the large pullback or back up to 185 to fill gap
+1 Reply
@thedon80 - Not sure I see the gap you speak of. For now, the 4-hour chart remains in control (posted a few days ago) and is likely the playing field where the Model will remain able to filter what is going on.

The predictive/forecasting Model offered these forecasts off of the 4-hour chart:


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In the Wolfe Wave pattern ("WW"), a relatively HIGH probability target rests at the level of Point-4 once price rises from Point-5 (Very High Prob.) or from Point-5' (High prob.), which is what helped define the following target:

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At the present time, we find ourselves at a near-symmetry as price winds around the level of Point-4:

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However, the risk here is to develop mental myopia, as we feed our reward system with grateful pip earnings. What is happening instead is a failure of price to submit to the reversal effect of Point-4, which occurs quite often (it did initially immediately after hitting the target, but there is an underlying force that is calling price to higher level, and this means that a 60-minute chart has to be abandoned for a higher timeframe.

A good rule of thumb is moving on up at FOUR times the current timeframe. Had we been looking at the M15, we'd turn our mind to the 15 x 4 = 60 min. TF. Here, we are glancing at the 60-min. Hence, the 4-hour is calling our attention - Here is the 4-hour chart as of this time of writing:

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Now, you have to make a few assumptions, using the stick and stone material in the chart. Here, my assumption is that:

1 - Price will tend towards the 50% level defined by the mark up above
2 - Price is not likely to move in a straight line
3 - The 2-4 Line of WW was a hurdle as price moved on up (i.e.: resistance), hence it may now convert as a support
4 - IF price falls, it will likely rests atop the 2-4 Line projection. If it does not, at least we have this little to worry ...

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If price falls below the 2-4 Line, the bullish scenario should not be abandoned unless a BACA condition is met (BACA = Breaking-Across, then Closing-Across), which would require 2-3 bars to confirm.

This step-by-step method represents a very basic approach to trading, using a basic set of situational awareness relative to price, lines, and the ensuring geometries, which by their very existence within the chart will have lasting effect upon price, beyond their time of completion.

Best is to define a set of conditions that is based on what is available (not always an ideal condition, since it relates to real conditions, as opposed to ideal situations). Once you know what is available, define the tolerable loss that you are willing to incur. If it's too much, then move on to the next chart. Here, if the 2-4 Line fails to support price before its anticipated rallying, but instead allows price to dip a bit lower, it is up to the trader to define what is tolerably lower.

It is not so important to be right or wrong on the trade, but instead to be wrong most of the time while incurring minimal losses, and be right just once on a large risk-reward ration that offers a net gain at the end of the day. Much like poker: You'd want to bet one tenth of the account (too much, but just as an example), so that you are allowed to play ten times.

Your risk of loss has to be measured in those terms. A bit off tangent from your initial question, but this is an important topic I wanted to add in here for the traders that gain, lose, gain and lose again.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
11 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
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$GBPJPY hit its 50% target mark; Watch for overhead TL as next potential hurdle:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ
----------


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
shenkw85 4xForecaster
Hi David
Can I check with your model is still showing a overall short for GBPJPY? Also can we use TL at 183.50 as a resistance for the upward movement?
Thanks
+1 Reply
11 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
$GBPJPY - Printed a bearish candle at the validation level of a major bearish TL:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ
----------


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
GBPJPY Short


+2 Reply
19 FEB 2015 - Update:

(Not posting on Twitter or Linked-In):

Although of a low probability, the following chart is defining potential bullish levels that could see price reach - Worth following:

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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Hi David, would I be correct in saying if price BACA 184.190 then the move up is highly likely, and conversely a BACA 181.497 would place the bears in charge and likely down to TG-1?
+2 Reply
@iefan - Exactly. Couldn't have said it better.

David
+2 Reply
20 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
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Structurally, $GBPJPY is not capitulating. Break > 184.19 would open to BULLISH targets:

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@tradingview $GBP $JPY
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David Alcindor
----------

This pair has been a real ATM, staying close to the forecast moves - This is a relevant and valuable observation, given that not all system one creates will remain in lockstep with the financial markets.

Turns out that most pairs associated with the $JPY have done quite well with the predictive/forecasting model.

David
+2 Reply
24 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPJPY broke > 184.19; Keeps on giving since Point-5 of WW geometry; 185.7 next target:

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@tradingview $GBP $JPY
----------


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
02 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPJPY holds its ground at 184.19; Bullish targets remain in force:

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@tradingview $GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ #forex $USD
----------


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David Alcindor
+4 Reply
06 MAR 2015 - Update:

Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPJPY tested prior trigger, reversed; Outlook remains bullish:

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@tradingview $GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ $USD #forex
----------


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
26 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPJPY completes dual geometry at Pt-5; Opens to Carney's 5-0 Pattern; Bullish:

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@tradingview $GBP $JPY #BOE #BOJ
----------


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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
02 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$GBPJPY eyes 1-4 Line target; Predictive Model's loftier targets remains in force; Bullish:

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@tradingview $GBP $JPY
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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
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