microtrends

GBPNZD and EURNZD a Tale of 2 ranges

FX:GBPNZD   British Pound/New Zealand Dollar
The MTAutofib indicator is picking up the highs of 2006 and the lows of 2012 on the GBPNZD             - current market structure was can see a sideways channel or volatility zone the lower which was set in 2012 and 2013             and is still in play 2014. The most notable effects of time must be the range of this volatility zone and the range contraction of all FX markets from this period -whereby the ATR in 2012 contracted - expanded in 2013             and contracted again in 2014. To the point where i would seriously question the usage of any educator/broker offering a day trading system that relied on taking a scoop out of the intraday range... Swing trading must surely be the only way to trade here with good odds... -or at least day trade after looking for some condition that can be utilized on an intraday entry such as a breakout, fake out and continuation or bounce at support or resistance.

So we can see on the charts the Euro             is almost at its low once more - or is this the 2014 low? Could we be looking at a double bottom with 2013             - or a higher low.. followed by some range expansion? What has the NZD got that Eurozone has not? EUR has retreated somewhat from the GBP and so the charts look balanced in relation to each other. We can speculate - but all we have to do is wait and then employ a technique for entry.

The GBPNZD             has managed to hold on to some of its gains and is static above a support zone of a 12% retracement... from 2006 to 2012 - if you took the double top at 2008 and 2009 to 2012 its much the same story. So range constriction, congestion and a clear sideways volatility zone - looks like a great pair to watch for range expansion and a breakout or retest of lows soon.... so neutral as we sit and wait.. So it's possible to Buy the bounce or sell the breakdown on the GBPNZD             ..and time that with a session open or weekly open perhaps. I would expect some retracement back towards the 2009 highs 23% and 38% -longer term. It's just not clear if that is now...

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