As announced earlier today, this trade opp was worth following based on the underlying market geometry development.
See follow-thourgh analysis here:
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
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15 JUN 2015 - $GBPNZD-M15 Chart:
Watch for this potential opp upon crossing and closing below dashed line - David
Price is weaving a larger geometry:
1 - Engulfing W/Geo potential (light blue);
2 - 1-4 Take-Profit/Target lines;
3 - Parallel line of invalidation (concerning the larger WW/Geo in light blue);
4 - 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level with interim levels at 0.382 (@2.22557) and 0.500 (@0.22367) potential target @2.22171, based on 0.618 Fibonacci retracement;
5 - Possible Point-4 of the larger (light blue) geometry (either WW or Geo).
GBPNZD - Pending short if conditions are met (see GREEN square in chart) - David
Re: GBPNZD - Using "Geo-Anchor" (green star) along the 2-3 Leg helps re-align the smaller Geo's 1-4 Line with larger Geo's 1-4 line, itself making use of its own Geo-Anchor off of smaller Geo's Point-3. This symmetry alignment is fortuitous or significant, but one cannot tell for sure at this point, as price might still continue to rise and efface the current set-up - David
FX:GBPNZD 2015-06-15 14:08
Re: $GBPNZD - Latest adjustments:
I've been following this pair and your thread below, thank you for including the Fib levels, I'm starting to get the hang of them. I have taken the liberty to use your chart and plot the further development of this geo on a rather speculative basis. A decline is expected, if the bigger players from the higher TF don't throw their weight around? Thank you
Basically, there are a lot of interplay going on right now, not least of which is a paralleling of the 1-4 Line with internal Geos - May or may not be of significance, but worth considering as price as difficulty to drill through the 2-4 Line.
On 16 JUN 2015, @iefan had expected a decline in price. I looked at the Predictive/Forecasting Model, which suggested that price had not gone up (in terms of probability), which is why I offered the BULLISH targets on that same day, producing the following chart:
As price hit its first target (see following chart), I indicated on 16 JUN 2015 that:
"Model remains BULLISH but within the range defined in the chart"
Indeed, price continued to rally to the next and final target level, as per last chart:
Thank you very much for your guidance on this trade. Had you not provided the targets from your Predictive/Forecasting Model I would have entered short on BACA of the 1-3 Line and been stopped out. Goes to show how susceptible lower TFs are to the bigger players in the market. Back to the 4 hour chart for me :)
A safe practice would be to consider a stop-loss. This can only be determined based on your risk tolerance, but from a structural perspective, I would define 1.414 x Points-1/2 as a reasonable level of short entry, and 1.618 x Points-1/2 + spread as a firm SL.
$GBPNZD has moved to a HIGHER timeframe for consistent application of the Predictive/Forecasting Model - New target TG-Hi will follow - Preliminarily values at:
1 -TG-Hi = 2.39600 - 15 JUL 2015 (mod. prob. of attainment)
2 - TG-Hix = pending (low prob. of attainment)
A new chart will follow in new thread.