4xForecaster
Short

$GBP vs. $NZD - Geo Offers A Short Opp | #BOE #RBNZ #forex

FX:GBPNZD   British Pound/New Zealand Dollar
658 20 13
Friends,

As announced earlier today, this trade opp             was worth following based on the underlying market geometry development.


snapshot

See follow-thourgh analysis here:
- https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#5eHLst6YxeVqGlaO

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
15 JUL 2015 - Tech-Note:

$GBPNZD has moved to a HIGHER timeframe for consistent application of the Predictive/Forecasting Model - New target TG-Hi will follow - Preliminarily values at:

1 -TG-Hi = 2.39600 - 15 JUL 2015 (mod. prob. of attainment)

and

2 - TG-Hix = pending (low prob. of attainment)


A new chart will follow in new thread.

Best,


David
+3 Reply
Hi David! I'm interesting in your opinion. After completing this WW can we expect further decline or continuing rally?

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+1 Reply
Hello @nikokoev - Yes, I still expect a decline.

A safe practice would be to consider a stop-loss. This can only be determined based on your risk tolerance, but from a structural perspective, I would define 1.414 x Points-1/2 as a reasonable level of short entry, and 1.618 x Points-1/2 + spread as a firm SL.

David
+3 Reply
17 JUN 2015 - UPDATE: All probability targets hit


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Well, that took care of that trade. Did not expect it to go as high as it did overnight, but this market is definitely moving fast - I hope you enjoy this trade as well.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
takefal 4xForecaster
Very well done trade here. Unfortunately I was convinced from your analysis before six days, which was intended to 2.1055 for the pair, in the weekly chart. The result for me was natural to miss several pips since the positioning was to go to point 3 (following the known rule of WW) and not even above the point 5 "!!! Related link :
+1 Reply
Hello @takefal - Yes, I understand. However, as the targets were defined above, the SMALLER timeframe relative to the WEEKLY can offer a lot of gyrations.

On 16 JUN 2015, @iefan had expected a decline in price. I looked at the Predictive/Forecasting Model, which suggested that price had not gone up (in terms of probability), which is why I offered the BULLISH targets on that same day, producing the following chart:


snapshot



As price hit its first target (see following chart), I indicated on 16 JUN 2015 that:

"Model remains BULLISH but within the range defined in the chart"


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Indeed, price continued to rally to the next and final target level, as per last chart:


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Best,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Hi David

Thank you very much for your guidance on this trade. Had you not provided the targets from your Predictive/Forecasting Model I would have entered short on BACA of the 1-3 Line and been stopped out. Goes to show how susceptible lower TFs are to the bigger players in the market. Back to the 4 hour chart for me :)
Reply
16 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

Bulls are fighting a bloody murk of an uphill. Price is still hanging on a slippery geometry (still hanging on to the upper channel of the 1-4 parallels).

Model remains BULLISH but within the range defined in the chart:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
16 JUN 2015 - UPDATE: First Target Hit


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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
16 June 2015

GBPNZD

Hi David

I've been following this pair and your thread below, thank you for including the Fib levels, I'm starting to get the hang of them. I have taken the liberty to use your chart and plot the further development of this geo on a rather speculative basis. A decline is expected, if the bigger players from the higher TF don't throw their weight around? Thank you
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+3 Reply
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