4xForecaster
Short

$GBP vs. $NZD - Geo Offers A Short Opp | #BOE #RBNZ #forex

FX:GBPNZD   British Pound/New Zealand Dollar
658 20 13
Friends,

As announced earlier today, this trade opp             was worth following based on the underlying market geometry development.


snapshot

See follow-thourgh analysis here:
- https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#5eHLst6YxeVqGlaO

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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David Alcindor
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
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Following is the follow-through, written up in the "Predictive/Forecasting" Chatroom:

=====================
4xForecaster
FX:GBPNZD 2h
15 JUN 2015 - $GBPNZD-M15 Chart:

Watch for this potential opp upon crossing and closing below dashed line - David
4xForecaster
snapshot




FX:GBPNZD 1h
Price is weaving a larger geometry:

1 - Engulfing W/Geo potential (light blue);

2 - 1-4 Take-Profit/Target lines;

3 - Parallel line of invalidation (concerning the larger WW/Geo in light blue);

4 - 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level with interim levels at 0.382 (@2.22557) and 0.500 (@0.22367) potential target @2.22171, based on 0.618 Fibonacci retracement;

5 - Possible Point-4 of the larger (light blue) geometry (either WW or Geo).

David
4xForecaster
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FX:GBPNZD 1h
GBPNZD - Pending short if conditions are met (see GREEN square in chart) - David
4xForecaster
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FX:GBPNZD 1h
Re: GBPNZD - Using "Geo-Anchor" (green star) along the 2-3 Leg helps re-align the smaller Geo's 1-4 Line with larger Geo's 1-4 line, itself making use of its own Geo-Anchor off of smaller Geo's Point-3. This symmetry alignment is fortuitous or significant, but one cannot tell for sure at this point, as price might still continue to rise and efface the current set-up - David
4xForecaster
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FX:GBPNZD 2015-06-15 14:08
Re: $GBPNZD - Latest adjustments:
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===================================

David





+2 Reply
15 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

This trade remains potential ... Wait for a dedicated move ("BACA") first, then enter at NEXT candle from BACA* completion.


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David Alcindor

---------------------------------
*Breaks Across + Closes Across
+1 Reply
15 JUN 2015 - UPDATE: Hit first target:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$GBPNZD hit its first of three #fibonacci target; Remains bearish in M15 chart:

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$GBP $NZD #BOE #RBNZ #forex
----------


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
15 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

Keep watch on this minor structural level ... Great level for a short stack and stop-loss ... A push-back from here is probable:


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
15 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

Interestingly, a smaller Geo completed a rally right at the level of Point-4 following rallying from 5-prime, in contrast to the Wolfe Wave Rule, which would have sought completion at the 1-4 Line:


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David Alcinodr
+2 Reply
iefan PRO
a year ago
16 June 2015

GBPNZD

Hi David

I've been following this pair and your thread below, thank you for including the Fib levels, I'm starting to get the hang of them. I have taken the liberty to use your chart and plot the further development of this geo on a rather speculative basis. A decline is expected, if the bigger players from the higher TF don't throw their weight around? Thank you
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+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
a year ago
Hi, @iefan - Yes, this one looks more promising. Very nice.

David
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Here, running the Model at a smaller scale (don't usually like to do this, as it tends to exclude institutional players that have a whole lot more ability to sway price):


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Basically, there are a lot of interplay going on right now, not least of which is a paralleling of the 1-4 Line with internal Geos - May or may not be of significance, but worth considering as price as difficulty to drill through the 2-4 Line.


David
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David. Thank you, going to be very interesting to watch this develop. I'm watching the 15 min candle now as it has crossed the 1 - 3 Line and has 7 minutes before it closes. So if it BACA then I will go short at the open of the next candle....do I have it right in terms of following a trading plan? Having the targets from the predictive model makes me think I should maybe wait this one out and see what geo has formed if and when we get to TG-HI?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
a year ago
@iefan - Yes, I am not so certain that it wants to fall as of yet, per Predictive Model, as well as per current price hesitant behavior.

D.
+1 Reply
takefal 4xForecaster
a year ago
What about the weekly chart gbp / nzd? should not have fallen to the point 3 following the rule? I think was an analysis from you David, for which I do not see anything new about.
Reply
16 JUN 2015 - UPDATE: First Target Hit


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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
16 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

Bulls are fighting a bloody murk of an uphill. Price is still hanging on a slippery geometry (still hanging on to the upper channel of the 1-4 parallels).

Model remains BULLISH but within the range defined in the chart:


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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
17 JUN 2015 - UPDATE: All probability targets hit


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Well, that took care of that trade. Did not expect it to go as high as it did overnight, but this market is definitely moving fast - I hope you enjoy this trade as well.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
takefal 4xForecaster
a year ago
Very well done trade here. Unfortunately I was convinced from your analysis before six days, which was intended to 2.1055 for the pair, in the weekly chart. The result for me was natural to miss several pips since the positioning was to go to point 3 (following the known rule of WW) and not even above the point 5 "!!! Related link :
LESSON:  $GBPNZD  #fibonacci Strat.  #forex $GBP $NZD #RBNZ #BOE
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO takefal
a year ago
Hello @takefal - Yes, I understand. However, as the targets were defined above, the SMALLER timeframe relative to the WEEKLY can offer a lot of gyrations.

On 16 JUN 2015, @iefan had expected a decline in price. I looked at the Predictive/Forecasting Model, which suggested that price had not gone up (in terms of probability), which is why I offered the BULLISH targets on that same day, producing the following chart:


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As price hit its first target (see following chart), I indicated on 16 JUN 2015 that:

"Model remains BULLISH but within the range defined in the chart"


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Indeed, price continued to rally to the next and final target level, as per last chart:


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Best,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David

Thank you very much for your guidance on this trade. Had you not provided the targets from your Predictive/Forecasting Model I would have entered short on BACA of the 1-3 Line and been stopped out. Goes to show how susceptible lower TFs are to the bigger players in the market. Back to the 4 hour chart for me :)
Reply
nikokoev
a year ago
Hi David! I'm interesting in your opinion. After completing this WW can we expect further decline or continuing rally?

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+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO nikokoev
a year ago
Hello @nikokoev - Yes, I still expect a decline.

A safe practice would be to consider a stop-loss. This can only be determined based on your risk tolerance, but from a structural perspective, I would define 1.414 x Points-1/2 as a reasonable level of short entry, and 1.618 x Points-1/2 + spread as a firm SL.

David
+3 Reply
15 JUL 2015 - Tech-Note:

$GBPNZD has moved to a HIGHER timeframe for consistent application of the Predictive/Forecasting Model - New target TG-Hi will follow - Preliminarily values at:

1 -TG-Hi = 2.39600 - 15 JUL 2015 (mod. prob. of attainment)

and

2 - TG-Hix = pending (low prob. of attainment)


A new chart will follow in new thread.

Best,


David
+3 Reply
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