FX:GBPNZD   British Pound / New Zealand Dollar
Fundamentals:

Fundamental are mixed. Technical analysis will take the lead for this idea. We will target a smaller movement because there is no fundamental to drive the price.

Market sentiment and technical analysis:

This is one of my favourite setups to execute: we will take advantage of the too obvious retail traders setups and execute it in a way that we will enter while retail noobs get stopped out.

On this chart, I identified a setup that is obvious and very clean to every retail trader out there: Trend-line 3rd touch, 61,8% fib, nice S&R and 50ma. Based on this information, I know that myself 5 years ago would have taken this trade with my eyes closed. We will not enter this.

I will enter this trade based on the potential stop hunt that will occur from the grey circle (@1,96900). Normally, the stop hunt will reach 78,6% in confluence with my trendline, my KL and the 100ma.

My SL is large enough if the price needs to reach the 200ma and the lower supports. Lower than this and the setup is invalid.

Final tip:
When you are looking for a setup, ask yourself if this setup is beautiful to the eyes of new traders entering the market. If this is the case, you should use this information to tweak your analysis so you don't end up stopped out like them. They may have the right direction like you, but they won't have the good execution like you. ;)
Order cancelled:
Price exploded before it could give retail noobs a reason to enter. No stophunt will occur. This idea is invalid.
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