4xForecaster
Short

$GBP vs. $NZD Mulls 50% Decine To 2.03526 | #BOE #forex $USD

FX:GBPNZD   British Pound/New Zealand Dollar
801 25 15
Friends,

Predictive/Forecasting Model had already suggested imminent decline (see prior analysis in my threads). In this particular pair, a primary, quantitative target emerges at significant historical structural levels - See line-up of highlights in following chart:


snapshot


In the background, a nascent geometry is taking shape, carving out a speculative Point-4, so expect a denouement in the following week.

Invalidation levels should be considered at transgression of geometry's Point-2. Again, Point-4 remains speculative as to its final residence.


OVERALL:

Per Predictive/Forecasting Model, the outlook turns BEARISH . As the Predictive/Forecasting Model mulls the data, added qualitative/quantitative targets will be posted as we move along.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
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PS: See recent completed forecast on this pair:
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$GBP vs. $NZD Nears Bearish Target at 1.93154 \ $USD #forex #BOE


4xForecaster
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
11 JUN 2015 -A quick lesson on Fib-based trading:


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NOTE how price in the LARGER Fibonacci matrix allows its 0.382 contraction level to align with the SMALLER (former) 0.618 level ... one being the mathematical complement of the other (i.e.: 0.382 + 0.618 = 1.000).


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
Realisto_FX PRO 4xForecaster
What do you think about my approach ?
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Realisto_FX
@jpocalles - I love it.

The use if "Tunneling" on a preemptive basis is a definite must for this geometry.

However, since there is no other way than Fibonacci to confirm a top (unless you are using a supportive algorithm), then I would look for Fibonacci confluence levels ("clusters") based on points 1, 2 and the down-swing infection level above point 2.

Ideally, the 1-2 Leg would express a significance at the 1.414 or 1.618 level, whereas the internal 2-2' (i.e.: upswing end from point 2) would also express a significant Fibonacci level, aligning with the 1-2 Leg.

David
+2 Reply
11 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$GBPNZD reached outer-most permissible boundary of Geo at Point-5-second; Off-Set Rule target = 2.1055:

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$GBP $NZD
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David Alcindor
+4 Reply
aik0717 4xForecaster
Do you expect a decline from here?
+1 Reply
Hello @aik0717 - Yes, but remember that algorithm-based trading is a matter of probability. The geometric pacing of price (i.e.: levels at which price is seen moving and stopping based on translation of lines, such as in this case, where price is stomped at the translation of the 2-4 Line off of Point-1, thus defining level of Point-5-second) is not coincidental, but also not a leading indication of direction. Instead, it should be regarded as a probable level of arrest, at which a pivot, or a change of candle is likely to appear.

From a Geo perspective, where points 5' and 5'' are considered Stop-Losses relative to the core geometry of the Wolfe Wave (i.e.: points 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5), there now is a probable descent into the level corresponding to Point-3 (per "Off-Set Rule" I have established for myself, whereby Point-3 represents the HIGHEST probability of attainment, even if price can still get a bit lower).

In terms of trading strategy, this means that a trader should consider a 70/30, 75/25, or best a 80/20 strategy.

In effective terms, this means that IF and ONCE price reaches the price level corresponding to Point-3 when the Off-Set Rule applies (which is the case NOW), then 80% of the position should be off-loaded, and 20% of the position should remain in place.

The SL is then moved down based on your own risk assessment.

From a pure Structural Strategy level, I would move it at either the TOP of the prior candle, or aggressively at the top 0.75% mark of the current DAILY candle.

This entire methodology would represent an aggressive-forward/conservative profit blend: Aggressive in taking a short at the 5-second, and conservative by defining a SL right at the top of the 5-second candle, and then moving the stop-loss level as defined above.

Best,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
aik0717 4xForecaster
Very insightful Dave. Thank you
+1 Reply
@aik0717, you are very welcome.

David
Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
11 JUN 2015

$GBPNZD

Hi David,

Please could you give me your opinion and critique on my trade logic and if in your opinion it is reasonable, and how it can be improved. I entered short at the then double top on the 21 May 2015 at 2.14011

I risked 1% of my account and placed a stop 1/3 of the way between the 1.414 and 1.618 Fib extension. Take profit was you target at the 0.5 Fib retracement. Risk to reward was just over 1:1.

Have I made any glaring and obvious novice mistakes or is my trade plan reasonable sound?

I thank you for your time and patients.

Kind regards iefan
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+1 Reply
My apologies the 1.618 Fib Ext did not show on the previous chart image. Here is is below
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Reply
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