4xForecaster
Short

$GBP vs. $NZD Mulls 50% Decine To 2.03526 | #BOE #forex $USD

FX:GBPNZD   British Pound/New Zealand Dollar
798 25 15
Friends,

Predictive/Forecasting Model had already suggested imminent decline (see prior analysis in my threads). In this particular pair, a primary, quantitative target emerges at significant historical structural levels - See line-up of highlights in following chart:


snapshot


In the background, a nascent geometry is taking shape, carving out a speculative Point-4, so expect a denouement in the following week.

Invalidation levels should be considered at transgression of geometry's Point-2. Again, Point-4 remains speculative as to its final residence.


OVERALL:

Per Predictive/Forecasting Model, the outlook turns BEARISH . As the Predictive/Forecasting Model mulls the data, added qualitative/quantitative targets will be posted as we move along.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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David Alcindor
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PS: See recent completed forecast on this pair:
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$GBP vs. $NZD Nears Bearish Target at 1.93154 \ $USD #forex #BOE


4xForecaster
very nice and clean chart.....
let's see what happen :-)
+2 Reply
Since it has breached Point 2, is this trade setup is now invalid?
GBPNZD WW pattern for Target 2.035
Reply
20 MAY 2015 - Update:

TECH-NOTE:

Background geo is void.

50% target remains intact.

New: Predictive/Forecasting defines new qualitative targets, as shown in chart - Entire analysis invalidates upon break of structural high in chart:


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
21 MAY 2015

$GBPNZD

Hi David. A lower TF WW geo might indicate a decline before a further rally for a larger WW which may be forming?
snapshot
+1 Reply
@iefan - Yes, exactly.

The 2-4 Line of the smaller Geo should impact price as a support/resistance.

David
+1 Reply
Hi David,
Hope you have had a fantastic relaxing holiday.
A great short opportunity on Completion of WW pattern
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
Hello @HamedAghajani - Thank you. Still going on for a few days, although I am reconnecting with civilization and looking at charts a bit more often.

Thanks!


David
Reply
10 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$GBPNZD broke thru bear trench; Predictive/Forecasting Model bearish targets remain intact:

snapshot


$GBP $NZD #BOE #RBNZ
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Hi David. I was also short $GBPNZD, does the surprise cut from the RBNZ change the forecast in any way? Thank you
+1 Reply
@iefan - I will draw a NEW chart to give you perspective.

YES, the bearish trade is still good, as I mentioned below, but it has to be effected as a HIGHER timeframe ... I will post a new chart ASAP.

David
+2 Reply
11 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

Definitely out of bound for any bearish consideration.

David
+3 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Thank you, really appreciate your response. Kind regards. Iefan
+1 Reply
Yes, the action is at a higher frame: DAILY.

David
+2 Reply
@iefan - It remains a candidate for a 5'', but I tend to stay awa from these if the slope of the 2-4 Line is too flat, as there remains too little for price to return back to the price level of Point-3, as per Off-Set Rule.

David
+2 Reply
11 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$GBPNZD reached outer-most permissible boundary of Geo at Point-5-second; Off-Set Rule target = 2.1055:

snapshot


$GBP $NZD
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
aik0717 4xForecaster
Do you expect a decline from here?
+1 Reply
Hello @aik0717 - Yes, but remember that algorithm-based trading is a matter of probability. The geometric pacing of price (i.e.: levels at which price is seen moving and stopping based on translation of lines, such as in this case, where price is stomped at the translation of the 2-4 Line off of Point-1, thus defining level of Point-5-second) is not coincidental, but also not a leading indication of direction. Instead, it should be regarded as a probable level of arrest, at which a pivot, or a change of candle is likely to appear.

From a Geo perspective, where points 5' and 5'' are considered Stop-Losses relative to the core geometry of the Wolfe Wave (i.e.: points 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5), there now is a probable descent into the level corresponding to Point-3 (per "Off-Set Rule" I have established for myself, whereby Point-3 represents the HIGHEST probability of attainment, even if price can still get a bit lower).

In terms of trading strategy, this means that a trader should consider a 70/30, 75/25, or best a 80/20 strategy.

In effective terms, this means that IF and ONCE price reaches the price level corresponding to Point-3 when the Off-Set Rule applies (which is the case NOW), then 80% of the position should be off-loaded, and 20% of the position should remain in place.

The SL is then moved down based on your own risk assessment.

From a pure Structural Strategy level, I would move it at either the TOP of the prior candle, or aggressively at the top 0.75% mark of the current DAILY candle.

This entire methodology would represent an aggressive-forward/conservative profit blend: Aggressive in taking a short at the 5-second, and conservative by defining a SL right at the top of the 5-second candle, and then moving the stop-loss level as defined above.

Best,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
aik0717 4xForecaster
Very insightful Dave. Thank you
+1 Reply
@aik0717, you are very welcome.

David
Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
11 JUN 2015

$GBPNZD

Hi David,

Please could you give me your opinion and critique on my trade logic and if in your opinion it is reasonable, and how it can be improved. I entered short at the then double top on the 21 May 2015 at 2.14011

I risked 1% of my account and placed a stop 1/3 of the way between the 1.414 and 1.618 Fib extension. Take profit was you target at the 0.5 Fib retracement. Risk to reward was just over 1:1.

Have I made any glaring and obvious novice mistakes or is my trade plan reasonable sound?

I thank you for your time and patients.

Kind regards iefan
snapshot
+1 Reply
My apologies the 1.618 Fib Ext did not show on the previous chart image. Here is is below
snapshot
Reply
@iefan,

My "golden rule" when trading with a Fib scale is that the level of repose, which is the price from which I calculate a Fibonacci extension, HAS TO BE a minimum of 0.382-Fib. Without that, there is no valid extension level, but this is my rule (I used to trade in a trend-following fashion in the past relying heavily on price and Fibonacci's, and that was how I did it).

So, looking at your chart, where "0" is the origin of the Fib scale and "1" is the 100-Fib value, the MINIMUM REQUIRED retracement to the 38.2% level would be required to appreciate a 1.131, 1.272, 1.313, 1.414 and 1.618 pacing of price (i.e.: levels at which price can visibly be seen validating these Fibonacci extension levels)


David
+1 Reply
11 JUN 2015 -A quick lesson on Fib-based trading:


snapshot



snapshot



snapshot



NOTE how price in the LARGER Fibonacci matrix allows its 0.382 contraction level to align with the SMALLER (former) 0.618 level ... one being the mathematical complement of the other (i.e.: 0.382 + 0.618 = 1.000).


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
Realisto_FX PRO 4xForecaster
What do you think about my approach ?
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Realisto_FX
@jpocalles - I love it.

The use if "Tunneling" on a preemptive basis is a definite must for this geometry.

However, since there is no other way than Fibonacci to confirm a top (unless you are using a supportive algorithm), then I would look for Fibonacci confluence levels ("clusters") based on points 1, 2 and the down-swing infection level above point 2.

Ideally, the 1-2 Leg would express a significance at the 1.414 or 1.618 level, whereas the internal 2-2' (i.e.: upswing end from point 2) would also express a significant Fibonacci level, aligning with the 1-2 Leg.

David
+2 Reply
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