Shallow Opp; 2 Triggers, 1 Target - Best/Worst Cases | $GBP $NZD
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BEST-CASE SCENARIO - TRADE PROFILE ( BCS ):
- Stop = 2.00651
- Entry = 2.01034
- Limit = 2.07432
- RR = 16.7:1
Further interim decline is expected, down to a probable 2.00913 support, defining a low-exposure entry point against a shallow Stop. Limit is defined based on ideal technical circumstance, where a near-perfect combination of alignment between Fibonacci + 2 prop patterns + predictive/forecasting model data has occurred.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING DATA (unconfirmed):
- Bullish
- Invalidation 2.02538
- TG-1 = 2.07474 - 11 DEC 2014
GEOMETRIES:
- Janus Pattern (prop.)
- Great White Pattern (prop.)
FUNDAMENTALS:
- Expecting further decline in $NZD based on recent bearish dairy commodities price data
- Commodities-wide outlook remains bearish and likely to continue propagate thru dairy price
- OCR rate (3.5% - unchanged) adds pressure to $NZD; offers further downside
- GBP rate (0.5% - unchanged) remains low; offers very little little downside
- NET impact is most bearish on commodity-based NZD
WORST-CASE SCENARIO - TRADE PROFILE (WCS):
- Invalidation occurs first
- Stop = 1.96045
- Entry = 1.97042
- Limit = 2.07432
- RR = 10.42:1
- Price finds soft R/S levels at 1.98382
- Price holds at solid R/S = 1.96868
- Invalidation < 1.96169
OVERALL:
- DIRECTIONAL BIAS = Neutral until triggers/invalidation occurs
- Probability highest towards further price decline (favors WCS)
- Strat based on defined structural data
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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- Stop = 2.00651
- Entry = 2.01034
- Limit = 2.07432
- RR = 16.7:1
Further interim decline is expected, down to a probable 2.00913 support, defining a low-exposure entry point against a shallow Stop. Limit is defined based on ideal technical circumstance, where a near-perfect combination of alignment between Fibonacci + 2 prop patterns + predictive/forecasting model data has occurred.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING DATA (unconfirmed):
- Bullish
- Invalidation 2.02538
- TG-1 = 2.07474 - 11 DEC 2014
GEOMETRIES:
- Janus Pattern (prop.)
- Great White Pattern (prop.)
FUNDAMENTALS:
- Expecting further decline in $NZD based on recent bearish dairy commodities price data
- Commodities-wide outlook remains bearish and likely to continue propagate thru dairy price
- OCR rate (3.5% - unchanged) adds pressure to $NZD; offers further downside
- GBP rate (0.5% - unchanged) remains low; offers very little little downside
- NET impact is most bearish on commodity-based NZD
WORST-CASE SCENARIO - TRADE PROFILE (WCS):
- Invalidation occurs first
- Stop = 1.96045
- Entry = 1.97042
- Limit = 2.07432
- RR = 10.42:1
- Price finds soft R/S levels at 1.98382
- Price holds at solid R/S = 1.96868
- Invalidation < 1.96169
OVERALL:
- DIRECTIONAL BIAS = Neutral until triggers/invalidation occurs
- Probability highest towards further price decline (favors WCS)
- Strat based on defined structural data
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
-----
Twitter: @4xForecaster
-----
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$GBPNZD eyes bearish target at 1.93154; Background geo awaits completion:
@tradingview $GBP $NZD #BOE #RBNZ #forex
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David Alcindor
Price action hit TG-Lo, and barely reached the TG-Lox. At this point, we are pretty much done with this trade.
- I will post more on this pair using a fresher chart if and once a pertinent technical event arises.
David Alcindor
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$GBPNZD likely to complete background geo at 5-prime, at bearish 1.96738 target:
@tradingview $GBP $NZD #BOE #RBNZ
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David Alcindor
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$GBPNZD reversed from bears trench; Eyes lower targets; Break < 2.00525 opens floor:
@tradingview $GBP $NZD #forex
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David Alcindor
" ... Further interim decline is expected, down to a probable 2.00913 support ... "
" ... Probability highest towards further price decline (favors WCS) ... "
As indicated in the analysis: There were 2 case scenarios: One best (BCS), one worst (WCS) ... Bias favored WCS.
David Alcindor
Target remains valid, based on supportive RSI conformation (pos. div.). Price action stays above its 2.00913 threshold, favors the most immediate bullish scenario.
David Alcindor