4xForecaster

Shallow Opp; 2 Triggers, 1 Target - Best/Worst Cases | $GBP $NZD

FX:GBPNZD   British Pound/New Zealand Dollar
BEST-CASE SCENARIO - TRADE PROFILE ( BCS             ):

- Stop = 2.00651
- Entry = 2.01034
- Limit = 2.07432
- RR = 16.7:1

Further interim decline is expected, down to a probable 2.00913 support, defining a low-exposure entry point against a shallow Stop. Limit is defined based on ideal technical circumstance, where a near-perfect combination of alignment between Fibonacci + 2 prop patterns + predictive/forecasting model data has occurred.


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING DATA (unconfirmed):

- Bullish
- Invalidation 2.02538
- TG-1 = 2.07474 - 11 DEC             2014


GEOMETRIES:
- Janus Pattern (prop.)
- Great White Pattern (prop.)

FUNDAMENTALS:
- Expecting further decline in $NZD based on recent bearish dairy commodities price data
- Commodities-wide outlook remains bearish and likely to continue propagate thru dairy price
- OCR rate (3.5% - unchanged) adds pressure to $NZD; offers further downside
- GBP rate (0.5% - unchanged) remains low; offers very little little downside
- NET impact is most bearish on commodity-based NZD


WORST-CASE SCENARIO - TRADE PROFILE (WCS):
- Invalidation occurs first
- Stop = 1.96045
- Entry = 1.97042
- Limit = 2.07432
- RR = 10.42:1
- Price finds soft R/S levels at 1.98382
- Price holds at solid R/S = 1.96868
- Invalidation < 1.96169


OVERALL:
- DIRECTIONAL BIAS = Neutral until triggers/invalidation occurs
- Probability highest towards further price decline (favors WCS)
- Strat based on defined structural data

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA

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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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19 DEC 2014 - Quick Note:

Target remains valid, based on supportive RSI conformation (pos. div.). Price action stays above its 2.00913 threshold, favors the most immediate bullish scenario.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Hi, do you havé an up date regarding this strategy, we broke 2.0065
+1 Reply
Please, read the analysis. It's written to preempt these questions:

" ... Further interim decline is expected, down to a probable 2.00913 support ... "

" ... Probability highest towards further price decline (favors WCS) ... "

As indicated in the analysis: There were 2 case scenarios: One best (BCS), one worst (WCS) ... Bias favored WCS.


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
13 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$GBPNZD reversed from bears trench; Eyes lower targets; Break < 2.00525 opens floor:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $NZD #forex
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snapshot




David Alcindor
+4 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
snapshot
Reply
Retrace via WW to 2.02538 then an opportunity to enter short for the further move down to David's targets. That in my inexperienced opinion is the most probable price movement.
Reply
30 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$GBPNZD likely to complete background geo at 5-prime, at bearish 1.96738 target:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $NZD #BOE #RBNZ
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
02 APR 2015 - Update:

Price action hit TG-Lo, and barely reached the TG-Lox. At this point, we are pretty much done with this trade.


snapshot



- I will post more on this pair using a fresher chart if and once a pertinent technical event arises.


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
16 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$GBPNZD eyes bearish target at 1.93154; Background geo awaits completion:

snapshot


@tradingview $GBP $NZD #BOE #RBNZ #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
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