GBP: Sterling is a very currency given expectations to raise rates in early-to-mid 2016. Recent job growth has been stellar and BOE comments have been hawkish. We look to buy sterling against weaker currencies on deep pullbacks. The recent report and MPC minutes were less hawkish than anticipated by the market which caused a selloff in GBP. McCafferty is now voting for a rate hike. July CPI data has given the pound a boost, with y/y core increasing 0.4% since the June reading; it now stands at 1.2%.
NZD: The Kiwi dollar is one of the most currencies at present due to the easing cycle of the RBNZ. They have cut rates twice this year and are expected to cut again at the next meeting. How many more cuts will depend on dairy prices which comprise a large proportion of New Zealand’s exports. The currency will remain pressured heading into the next rate decision in September and fair value against the greenback is likely to be around 60 cents by year’s end. The 20-week decline in GDT index was finally halted at the recent auction where prices showed a nearly 15% increase. We will need to see confirmation of a trend change before this becomes a factor for the NZD. The market currently expects another rate cut this year with approximately 80% probability.