GBTC discount in context of SEC litigation and recent events
The OTC:GBTC-to-
BTCUSD
discount has probably passed its peak, and the market is seeing the progress in court and the clock ticking towards a court decision as a good thing. I'm bullish on OTC:GBTC for the win, with a swift close of the gap once the court's decision issues. "Win" can have many flavors, however, so the gap may not close completely. Or, we may flip to a premium (shares used to trade for more than the price of equivalent
BTC
).
Here you can see how Grayscale's lawsuit against the SEC scared the market (pushing the discount up), judges' questions at oral arguments scared the SEC, or at least should have (pushing the discount down), and a decision will come down in the coming months (pushing the discount down still further). Reading the tea leaves, Grayscale seems likely to win, but it's unclear what exact instructions the court will give the parties and whether the SEC will respond by allowing the spot ETF or by causing more uncertainty for investors (whom it should be seeking to protect in any event).
Chart shows OTC:GBTC OTC:GBTC discount vs. with dates of key events in Grayscale's litigation against SEC in pursuit of spot
BTCUSD
ETF. The discount here is calculated as the value difference between owning BTC outright and owning OTC:GBTC trust shares entitled to an equivalent number of bitcoins.
Charted using Trading Alpha's Alpha Trend+
BTCUSD
discount has probably passed its peak, and the market is seeing the progress in court and the clock ticking towards a court decision as a good thing. I'm bullish on OTC:GBTC for the win, with a swift close of the gap once the court's decision issues. "Win" can have many flavors, however, so the gap may not close completely. Or, we may flip to a premium (shares used to trade for more than the price of equivalent
BTC
). Here you can see how Grayscale's lawsuit against the SEC scared the market (pushing the discount up), judges' questions at oral arguments scared the SEC, or at least should have (pushing the discount down), and a decision will come down in the coming months (pushing the discount down still further). Reading the tea leaves, Grayscale seems likely to win, but it's unclear what exact instructions the court will give the parties and whether the SEC will respond by allowing the spot ETF or by causing more uncertainty for investors (whom it should be seeking to protect in any event).
Chart shows OTC:GBTC OTC:GBTC discount vs. with dates of key events in Grayscale's litigation against SEC in pursuit of spot
BTCUSD
ETF. The discount here is calculated as the value difference between owning BTC outright and owning OTC:GBTC trust shares entitled to an equivalent number of bitcoins. Charted using Trading Alpha's Alpha Trend+