GC - I am still bearish on this. — GOLD FUTURES (COMEX:GC1!) / 2015-01-27 — ucsgears

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GOLD FUTURES (COMEX:GC1!)

COMEX:GC1! GOLD FUTURES

Will be accumulating GLD at 1220/10-5=117. And hedge the primary position with options.

There is a $5 difference in GLD

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jangseohee

What I am betting is - This recent slide in the market will potentially breakout to the upside and potentially weaker momentum. Gold will have its dip to 1220. And finally, some kind of stimulus program with weaker market, pushing gold price higher.

ucsgears

understood.. 1220 is at my green channel support :-)

ucsgears

Thats my Longer term outlook. Being long in this market (long term portfolio) is bad.

ucsgears

you mean long Gold or ..something else?

jangseohee

Currently, IMO, market is facing light distribution. Gold facing Accumulation. Atleast the Volume analysis confirms that. Stronger volume on down days in the market, followed by stronger volume on up days in GC.

Precious metals are sitting at the bare minimum price for the miners. Along with this, we do have XLB (Materials) seasonality lining up. Of course, Materials XLB is heavily weighed with Chemicals, There will be a relative impact overall, creating some buying pressure.

If the miners are losing money, they will be forced to cut down production (not like the oil prices - where the profit margin was double at $90). Its better for the miners to have the gold in ground, rather than selling it for cheaper.

ucsgears

Fundamental + Technical = Cool :-P

jangseohee

I agree with your short term/longterm and mid term - I am expecting sideways action Buying at the support is still valid.

ucsgears

Only in my HO

i am short term bear, mid term bull (1450), long long term bear

World is waiting for Yellen to open her mouth. FED meeting day - low volatile ----> High Volatile.

ucsgears

"we will be patient and observe longer"

jangseohee

I look for only the major changes in the FED meetings announcement. Like, interest rates going up, markets are over priced etc...

ucsgears

cool

Good time to Monitor, and or trail stops, The break below recent narrow candle with conviction is the key, Idea is that it should not go back to retest the high, until it hits the target. If it does, the Setup is void.

ucsgears

alright, i will forfeit that 5 dollar target of 1250..
i will just collect my profit at 1255 from 1305 :-)
as per my first post
thank you for reminding

jangseohee

Let your profit run and cut the loss quick.. I am still expecting it to go lower.. It has not met the target. Three more weeks left per plan.. So I am in no hurry here. I will short it aggressive on any bounces...

Someone asked me about that $5 difference.. Here is how the etc is valued for some reason. Gold price / 10 , then subtract $5 that must be approximate GLD value. Any thing extreme is a good scalp on GLD

ucsgears

Its always Hilarious to watch the GLD traders at the Close, trying to grab positions, when GC does not get hit at all. "Trade per Underlying"

Will be taking 5% risk on portfolio, If Gold will rally to $1277 and on any weakness trigger after that.

ucsgears

could even reach 1220

jangseohee

Yes if weakness prevails this move, IMO - It does look good for 1220 even 1200 kiss

ucsgears

stop at median line

jangseohee

Oh wow!, Check the tape reading on the GLD... and GC - With this move, there are not enough buying pressure, like it should.

Got to get a bit nimble here - Handling the trade (the Osc shows some strength - I am not buying here) This could pull a move like March 2014.

ucsgears

Profit hit on this, there is one more level I am watching based on the longer time frame

ucsgears

Directly sitting on the IHS neckline, so as GLD :-)

jangseohee

Like I planned, My long term accumulation is working it way on GLD. Will hold that for few years.

ucsgears

but indices keep going higher, no good for Gold for the moment

jangseohee

i dont mind, its a long term accumulation...

ucsgears

Very close to the Final target of (Tighten the Stop) - On the Options Hedge (pre-protective put). How I handled this trade. I bought a good amount of OTM puts, matched the unrealized profits to purchase the extra GLD @117 on a IRA. Established a 123/128 CCS 1/2 R/R (based on the first post on weekly chart) expiring this week worthless, used all the credit to add more GLD at 117&115. Trade is working its way. Plan a trade with the setup and execute it. This method is good when the trade goes in your favor. When It doesn't, you will be multiplying Risk. The worst would be GLD hitting 118 and bouncing higher(didnt happen) If it did - CCS and Puts made money, Close those positions and be profitable. Multi Leg options, picking the prices to establish the trade, set hidden contingent orders and set alerts and forget it.

ucsgears

Puts Stopped out, as the FOMC hit. That means there is still fear in the General US Stock market. GOLD rally, BONDS rally after FOMC. Tomorrow price action will plot a picture on how the future 4 weeks will be. Lets see...

Doing such trades, Needs Discretionary trading. A 100% rule based trader's nightmare, if he chose to pay attention to all this. IMO

ucsgears

Indeed. I was short usdcad and long usdjpy, before FOMC minutes logically.
Counting on a crude and gold rally in case the minutes were negative for the dollar.
Let's see how this affects gold and the stock market (and usdjpy!).

IvanLabrie

Good way to manage risk using forex. Applying Co-relation to the finest. I suppose, with my limited knowledge on all the FOREX correlation. I only monitor, CAD, JPY, EUR, AUD against USD. Gives my a good outlook on money flow.

ucsgears

That's more than enough. Majors and the commodity pairs.

IvanLabrie

Mostly I am trading ETF in US for the commodity and currency. So I just follow the commodity. Gold and Crude. Silver, Natural Gas on the side. Also track DBA, DBC - Agricultural based ETF and Commodity based. When DBC is underperfoming DBA, The Energy sector suffers, just a quick co-relation.

ucsgears

Nice ;)

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