DAX is strong - No discussion.
After such a run, it is likely the DAX will remain in bullish mode for a while.
Note the rally is so strong that a 10% correction would hardly be noticed on the chart.
13,000 could be reached this summer, after which it would probably remain in the zone for a bit.
What are the catalysts?
Unlike 2000 or 2007 which were strong fundamentally and psychologically driven rallies, this one has to major component (which are related):
(1) Low rates - Negative up to 7/10y (!!!) - This is really a boost for an industrial economy.
(2) Low rates in europe and the prospect of US rates hikes creates a great carry trade > USD appreciation.
(3) all the liquidity that wants to joins Europe seeks quality and Germany is the best candidate.
These are great catalyst but are unlikely to create vertical exuberance in a low inflation environment.
Note the performance of the DAX in USD is not great and it trades below its recent tops measured in this currency.
EURUSD may reach below parity at the end of the year if the US raise rates but that situation will create so much tension that a currency intervention would not be surprising. Note: nothing is surprising anymore when it comes to central banks.
After such a run, it is likely the DAX will remain in bullish mode for a while.
Note the rally is so strong that a 10% correction would hardly be noticed on the chart.
13,000 could be reached this summer, after which it would probably remain in the zone for a bit.
What are the catalysts?
Unlike 2000 or 2007 which were strong fundamentally and psychologically driven rallies, this one has to major component (which are related):
(1) Low rates - Negative up to 7/10y (!!!) - This is really a boost for an industrial economy.
(2) Low rates in europe and the prospect of US rates hikes creates a great carry trade > USD appreciation.
(3) all the liquidity that wants to joins Europe seeks quality and Germany is the best candidate.
These are great catalyst but are unlikely to create vertical exuberance in a low inflation environment.
Note the performance of the DAX in USD is not great and it trades below its recent tops measured in this currency.
EURUSD may reach below parity at the end of the year if the US raise rates but that situation will create so much tension that a currency intervention would not be surprising. Note: nothing is surprising anymore when it comes to central banks.
