MaryJane
Short

Update: GER 30 IN THE ABYSS

FX:GER30   DAX index of German listed shares
112 5 10
Update to my former analysis:
The last shortterm-support @ 11250 turned into a resistance. 3 red days followed.
Yesterday i updated my analysis and answered jimmy_honkong, that a rebound back to the level @ 11250 would be possible. Today we saw huge buyers in the market and the dax closed @ 11.265,39.

But what were the signals i saw to make me think that the index will get a rebound?

1. The downdrop ended exactly at his 38,2 Fibo-Retracement (8352-12405) @ 10.859 points.
2. The Dax             closed two days in a row out of his BB`s. Thats really unusual for the german main index. That signalized me, that the situation is very oversold and a rebound is possible.
3. The level @ 10860 is similar to the downside of the middleterm-downtrend

jimmy_honkongs 2. question: My second question is, why do you think it will stop at 11250 but not higher?

- 11.250 is similar to the 38,2 fibo-retracement of the downmove 11920-10861. This level is the minimal correction level. Now it is also possible, thet the correction wave will go further to the next higher fibo-levels 50% / 61,8%. The normal and maximal targets with this fibo-vies are @ 11391/11512.
The max.target of the 61,8% fibo is similar to the longterm-up-trend and middle-term-down-trend.
If the Dax             could make prices higher than 11620, the long-term-trend will be en vogue again. Than the next target would be @ 11921.
IMO             Dax             can`t break this level. My favorite target is on the daownside @ 1.0400-10.600

Former analysis: (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GER30/WU9wzDle-GER-30-in-the-abyss-Ger-30-am-Abgrund/)
Ger 30 in the abyss

The long term trend since Oct 14 has to be discussed.
Dax             is close to his last shortterm- support at 11250. This is the level to watch. Prices higher than this Level will establish the Support and will turn the short-term situation into neutral -bullish. If 11250 turns into a restistance, he could drop to 10250-10500. This Level is similar to the Fibo 50.
Prices higher than 12.000 will turn the Chart into bullish .
Prices in the Tradingbox between 11250-12000 are neutral.
Hello, I have a different view. The long candle stick (298 pts.) was appeared after a spinning top, so I think the correction is already over and a rebound will be riding up to a higher level than 11250. I think 11900 is achievable.
Reply
MaryJane jimmy_hongkong
Now ist getting interesting. The shortterm-upmove wave ended between the 50%61,8 fibo-retracement. This resistance seems too big! If Dax will Close under 10.950 i exspect a drop to his former low @ 10.850. Under 10.850 the way is free to his mentioned middle-term-target @ 10.600-10.250
Reply
MaryJane MaryJane
Here we go: 10850! This is the new Level to watch!
A Close < 10850 will generate a shortterm target @ 10.600 the next days . The Downwave should typically end @ 10.600. Should that target be reached @ 10.600, then a bigger rebound to 11.400 can start.
If dax Close > 10850 we will perhaps see a Rebound to 11.030/11.090.
Reply
You win! If it can break 11600, I think it can go to 12500 before September. What do you thnk?
Reply
MaryJane jimmy_hongkong
Thank u :-) Yes, i have the same opinion: if it can break the 11.600 we will see new highs :-) If September is realisitc, i dont know...at the Moment everybody has a look on Greek in Germany :-)
Have a look @ EMA 200
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