FX:GER30   DAX index of German listed shares
720 28 8
- Probably falling lower to 9100.
- Note there are key levels at 9700, 9630, 9531, 9413, 9119.
- 9100 could very well be the point of rebound.
- DAX             has now lateralised enough and there is now space to climb.
- If 9100 retains, the upside could be up to 10,600 in March15. That is the possible upside now.
- If it does not go up after 9119, let's just say that it becomes more dangerous to stay short now.
- The strategic stop on longs is 8700.
- Below 8700, could open to 7500/7000.
PaulusDAX
2 years ago
- short YES, but max 9474 (my model) & 9494 (Fibo 61,8)
- next step will be growth to about max 9900 , we see positive call from ECB on Thursday
- 8900 for long time traders only (spring this year)

who agrees with me ?
Reply
YaKa PRO PaulusDAX
2 years ago
what s the call on thursday?
i think the expectation is for an annoucement on the 22nd of Jan.

Else: all is possible.. your scenario is realistic...

I would have thought we would be done on the upside by april15.
Reply
YaKa PRO PaulusDAX
2 years ago
your 9474 is going to be tested pretty soon.
Reply
jangseohee YaKa
2 years ago
when i did all these "speculation" i only take average that price would fall in a 45 degree angle, but i always give allowance that price could fall steeper or less steeper than 45 degree, the same thing for upside, hence its around there
Reply
YaKa PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Yes, the pv is not teh angle.. the pb is when...
it take only a few days to change the angle to very steep and that is difficult to be sure of....
we are clearly in the window... the window is large, i would say 8 months.
Reply
jangseohee YaKa
2 years ago
lets say price fall 200 points in 3 days, not only it is fast but its also very STEEP, still my major trend line does not change bcoz of that
Reply
jangseohee YaKa
2 years ago
if the major retracement does occur, i would extend the previous upper triangle line to connect with my third lowest support at about 6800, which have 0.001% probability :-)
Reply
jangseohee
2 years ago
DAX, Glückliches Neues jahr!
Reply
YaKa PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Jang has a vested interest on the short side.. he may be right too and that is why longs need to be managed tacticallly..
Reply
jangseohee YaKa
2 years ago
failure to break resistance and price get push to a corner in that triangle
Reply
jangseohee YaKa
2 years ago
mr. market is telling Draghi, announce QE or it will be HELLLLLLLL! :-)
Reply
jangseohee jangseohee
2 years ago
index will get squeeze until Draghi do something similar like this but in german version


QQQ, is this blackmailing?
Reply
PaulusDAX
2 years ago
Thursday: Monetary policy decisions + Mr. Draghi conference
9497 now against expectations 9474
Reply
jangseohee PaulusDAX
2 years ago
Paulau, do you wish Draghi to push "Print QE" or keep his hands off? :-)
Reply
PaulusDAX jangseohee
2 years ago
See interview with Mr. Draghi at the Handelsblatt last week.
ECB chief Mario Draghi said last week, that the risk, that the ECB does not fulfill its task of ensuring monetary stability is greater now, than six months ago. This is the signal for radical easing policy (Fears of Deflation)
Reply
YaKa PRO PaulusDAX
2 years ago
He is going to do a QE Yes.
The impact is not clear though.
How comes the price is not excited by it as much as you are?
Reply
jangseohee YaKa
2 years ago
it is not black ink on white paper yet...
paying lip services will not sooth the investor and not even appease Mr. DAX :-)
Reply
YaKa PRO PaulusDAX
2 years ago
an upside breakout is really possible but really if there was anything exciting about what draghi is about to unleach... Peripheral countries like spain would have their index ballistic already... so far it is rather trading weak but it could change..
The information you have about a qe is priced, very well priced... and indices could be much lower if it was not far that...
Again: i am open to upside moves as they become possible technically but so far I dont see it happening in the price..
Reply
jangseohee YaKa
2 years ago
unless the QE is so bleedy attractive that it save the entire eurozone
Reply
YaKa PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Bloody attractive what?
Yields are already tighter in europe than in the US. What will be the impact of more purchase?
Draghi is not going to buy equities.. not in this first version and probably never..
I am really not sure... I can't see magic and the market is not contradicting... except the bund who will become a great short soon btw...
158/158.70 would be fantastic.
Reply
jangseohee YaKa
2 years ago
100B per month and interest rate 0.25 unlimited :-)
Reply
YaKa PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
well well- Remains to be seen and the impact remains to be seen.
Reply
PaulusDAX
2 years ago
9494 as the Fibo 61,8 was reached exactly
Reply
YaKa PRO PaulusDAX
2 years ago
Agreed.
Note however that those fibonacci ratios are often respected on first touch on the dax.. it does not guarantee lasting respect.
Reply
Recluse82 YaKa
2 years ago
i see a potential inverted cup amd handle pattern, the handle is forming now. if i am right than big drop could be, neckline 9200 target around 800-900 pips down
Reply
PaulusDAX
2 years ago
9461 / 17:30
2nd target 9474, goal was achived
see you tomorrow
Reply
Geert2000 PRO PaulusDAX
2 years ago
9200 will be hit this week.
Reply
jangseohee
2 years ago
DAX, Triple Top again?
Reply
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