YaKa
Short

DAX - PATH IF SANTA CRASH

FX:GER30   DAX index of German listed shares
533 32 5
It is an area where most would like to buy into Santa Claus Rally.

Things are a bit crazy right now and markets are unlocked with potentially the survival spirit getting back.

It may fail and lead to 4 weeks correction in total.

If it is a Santa Crash, this could be the path.

To start with, 9440 should retain in close.

Trading: short 9440 stop 9650. Size small its 200pts into 2000. A 1 by 10.
maximus71
2 years ago
Hi, it will bounce until 9600 before to fall again...:)
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YaKa PRO maximus71
2 years ago
Reasoning?
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maximus71 YaKa
2 years ago
Upside divergence Macd and cci on 15, 30 and 1 h time frame....may be just a technical bounce
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maximus71 maximus71
2 years ago
One things that i watch ....volume are high and it could give a good upside...dont forget santa klaus is coming....and mr market want is présent...:) like every year...
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YaKa PRO maximus71
2 years ago
Santa is coming far too recurrently and I believe this kind widely accepted phenomenon need to be challenged.. not often but dramatically.. this year could be it.
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YaKa PRO maximus71
2 years ago
ok.
CCI?
definitely a buy signal that protects the market at least for a few hours... no need to stay in front of it for a bit..
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maximus71 YaKa
2 years ago
Commodity Channel = CCI
+1 Reply
YaKa PRO maximus71
2 years ago
Ok Thx.
Is there a difference between a channel and a commodity channel?
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maximus71 YaKa
2 years ago
Of course....!!pro dont are always right...!!:)
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YaKa PRO maximus71
2 years ago
If it goes lower. the bounce could be capped at 9638 you are right..
But the bounce could be shallower, like all the bounces in Sep/Oct.
There is no certitude, "it will" is a bit strong.
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ShaunP maximus71
2 years ago
Hey guys,

Looking at TZ, there is a 77,8 % probability that the market will reach ca. just above today's low of 9217 at some point within the next 4 days, i.e. 22nd of December. What could change this probable course? tomorrow the Feds 2 day meeting ends. Analysts are hoping that the Fed changes its wording in its minutes that it wont change interest rates in the foreseeable future, this may cause the bounce to 9600, is it enough to change the situation we are in, I don't think so. The Fed cant keep the rates this low indefinitely, the markets have to accept this and this will be evident tomorrow and I speculate that this will be the cherry on the Christmas cake so to speak and send markets down... lets see tomorrow. The state of Russia is likely to send the markets down anyway after the bounce if it materializes.

Disclaimer: don't take my advice, I am a failing trader lol (hope I dont get a margin call @ 9750, TP @9217)
+1 Reply
jangseohee ShaunP
2 years ago
With the USD so high, and Mdm Y got "blackmailed" by Mr Market to fill downside gaps, i reckon in short term Christmas Rally could be on the table, especially starting next Monday
+1 Reply
Mickette
2 years ago
DAX: Mighty bullish engulfing candle on 4H. Watching the S&P Futures during the process very closely...
+1 Reply
YaKa PRO Mickette
2 years ago
Yes. There is a buy signal for sure.
Now: in any 4 weeks correction, there are 5/10 buy signals that end up failing.
It could work, it could fail. I call those pictures a gun. I trust them very much when i am looking for turning point... here it could be only the beginning of 7 out of 20bd down.
+1 Reply
YaKa PRO
2 years ago
The map is clear.
Now right or wrong there will be a short attempt.
Safer closer to 9630 and safer with stop above 9730,
optimise or risk of missing is the question.
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YaKa PRO YaKa
2 years ago
I may optimise now though:)
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Mickette
2 years ago
Possible end of the first downside and bounce to the red line yet.
http://www11.pic-upload.de/16.12.14/iigo2lwkz56w.png
+1 Reply
YaKa PRO
2 years ago
NOTE THOUGH:
Everyone watching would love an opportunity to short higher or exit at better level is long.
Not sure then... Nothing sure as always.
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Where the projection is QE program in Europe?
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YaKa PRO charlie.delta.trader
2 years ago
I have no clue.
It s been in the pipe for so long, I am not sure which effect it will have on delivery if at all...
The delivery is still far and I am not impressed with the Japan QE on Nikkei (which came as surprise/was not priced)
Many people told me: "market can't fall with QE pending" and there we are.
I am not sure. That is definitely why the short is difficult and why those shorting deserve their reward if they win against Santa Claus statistics and QE hopes.
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jangseohee YaKa
2 years ago
QE works until it no longer works, sound complicated :-)
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YaKa PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
what you just said is actually very powerful actually:
The absurd reasoning is this: if they do QE, do you think the market is going to give us a top that satisfies the believers and makes the market reach levels that both Technical Analysts and Fundamentals analysts will easily spot as a TOP?
It has to be more complex... Once in a while markets have to be Machiavellic.. Call it the zero (green) at the roulette that comes and disturb your red/black statistics.
+1 Reply
jangseohee YaKa
2 years ago
besides technical i am more thrilled with the psychological side of trading
another version
you know "The boy who cried Wolf"? :-)
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YaKa PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
I only psychology in the charts...
I virtually plot all news I am aware of and see how the energy is diffused...
At some point the music partition is finished and the solution is a break.
Those breaks can only occur when everyone think up... when there is tremendous amount of hope and complacency.. it took time but i think we are there (were there 2 weeks ago to be more accurate)
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YaKa PRO charlie.delta.trader
2 years ago
If it wants to go up:
1 catchup to circa 10,200
2 if breaks, you can think of circa 11,000

I did not believe 2 weeks ago, i believe even less now. It is still possible though.
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YaKa PRO YaKa
2 years ago
For now: My invalidation on short is 9750... below that i consider it noise/stretching/traps
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PipBoy
2 years ago
Respect, so far the short 9440 trade is looking good. Thanks! I am not quite sure how you draw your lines in chart. Is it some wave counting? Thanks in advance.
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YaKa PRO PipBoy
2 years ago
just daily pivot which can be a out of nowhere level that the market respects.
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PipBoy YaKa
2 years ago
Cheers
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YaKa PRO PipBoy
2 years ago
+ the daily ATR is 190pts now...
so after having done 9215.. it is unlikely 9440 would be beaten today (just unlikely but possible)... tomorrow it could though... if the US did not break the ground.
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YaKa PRO
2 years ago
Yesterday: The DAX decided. Today it is Sp500 that will decide if it wants to capitulate to the global trend or assume it is over elswhere and start up. You know my opinion: down to 1960 or more
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That title though :D
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