I will use the 10W MA as my stop loss level and look to open a short position on the next move higher which I suspect will coincide with Bitfinex relaunching their website and or any functionality involving the withdraws of alt coins and or USD.
I believe there has been a significant level of damage done to it's reputation and trust that will ultimately force it to cease operation and enter administration. Looking back at price action when Mt.Gox collapsed we can see for several months the price of was under pressure before recovering in May then continuing it's decline.
I suspect we will see similar price action again. Another interesting aspect of this situation coincides with a chart I posted before the Bitfinex hack showing the negative historical significance August seemed to have on the price of and I still believe this to be true which is posted below.
I suspect this will be played out over the coming weeks and months I will therefore open a quarterly contract at Okcoin with the aim to hold the position over the coming months.
Bitcoin has only had 1 time in it's history that the "End" of August "Closed" "Higher" than it's "Open" with the exception of one month I'll call neutral as the range is very narrow.
You seem to be confused about open and closes. "In a single bar you have an open and close" so if the month of August closed lower than it's open it was down month it's that simple.
You can see this here: